As the detailed preparations for the much-awaited general election in Bangladesh fructified without any untoward ado last Thursday, and the results the next day showed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP, led by Tarique Rahman) had established a landslide victory, the people of North-East India now expect a stable, progressive and friendly regime in Dhaka. One of the oldest political parties in the South Asian nation, the BNP won over 200 constituencies in the 300-member national parliament (Jatiya Sansad), whereas its nearest rival, the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh and allies, secured 77 seats.
The country’s pioneer political party, the ousted Awami League, was out of the race after 15 years of continuous rule, as its activities were banned by the interim government following its chairperson and former premier Sheikh Hasina being forced to flee to India on 5 August, 2024. The Muslim majority country of 170 million people was ruled by Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus from 8 August. The 13th Jatiya Sansad polls, conducted amid tight security and improved technological monitoring, witnessed a voter turnout of around 60% (out of a 127.7-million electorate).
The polling was largely peaceful, with registered voters exercising their franchise in overall trouble-free conditions, contrary to previous polling, which were controversial owing to very low voter turnouts. Nearly 2,000 candidates belonging to 51 political parties as well as independent contestants were in the fray. For the first time in 35 years, no one was killed in election-related violence on polling day, though seven persons died around polling centres across the country because of natural causes. One polling officer collapsed while on duty in Brahmanbaria, a former BNP leader in Khulna and five voters died due to illness in Dhaka, Chittagong, Gaibandha, Kishoreganj and Manikganj.
One can remember that the BNP ruled Bangladesh along with then ally Jamaat (during 2001 to 2006 under the leadership of Begum Khaleda Zia), when separatist militants of North-East states enjoyed almost a free run there. During Sheikh Hasina’s long tenure (began in 2009 and continued till 2024), these armed groups faced a serious crisis, as she took personal interest in curbing their activities across Bangladesh. A good number of militant leaders were deported to India, where they later joined in peace talks with New Delhi. The neighbouring country became unsafe for the militants, mainly belonging to the United Liberation Front of Assam.
It is hoped that Tarique Rahman’s leadership may not encourage anti-India rhetoric in Bangladesh. But the increasing space for Jamaat representatives in the Jatiya Sansad may haunt the north-eastern region. The issue came alive before the elections, as some Bangladeshi youth leaders proposed to offer shelter to north-eastern militants and even separated the region from the rest of India. The outburst was strongly rejected and countered by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who commented that India would not remain silent if those leaders continue threatening to destabilise and sever the region from the mainland.
Terming it a bad mindset, Sarma asserted that they should not even think of cutting the Siliguri Corridor (popularly known as the Chicken’s Neck) to indulge in their hyper anti-India sentiments. The hardliner saffron leader reminded Bangladesh about their own vulnerable chickens’ necks (80-kilometer line from Dakhin Dinajpur in West Bengal to Garo Hills in Meghalaya, and a 28-km stretch from south Tripura to the Bay of Bengal) before threatening India. However, the emergence of BNP as the winning party in the election was promptly lauded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In fact, he became the first global leader to congratulate Tarique Rahman for decisive victories in the much-watched electoral exercise. Dialing the premier-elect of Bangladesh, which shares over 4,050 km of international border with India, PM Modi expressed willingness to work with him to strengthen multifaceted relations between the two neighbours. He reiterated that India will continue to support a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh, which was responded to quickly by the BNP leadership in Dhaka. New Delhi had earlier sent foreign minister S. Jaishankar to carry condolence messages to Tarique Rahman on his mother Begum Zia’s demise at the age of 80, on 30 December.
But hours before, ousted premier Hasina slammed the Bangladesh election as a well-planned farce, even demanding the resignation of Dr Yunus as the head of the caretaker government. From her temporary shelter somewhere near Delhi, Sheikh Hasina also alleged that abnormal increases in the number of voters raise serious questions about the authenticity of polls. The ‘iron lady’ even demanded the cancellation of Bangladesh’s “illegal and unconstitutional election”. Contrary to the latest initiative of New Delhi (to send a timely congratulatory message to the BNP chief), India avoided sending any election observer, even though Dhaka had sought it, sending an invitation to Delhi. However, over 400 global observers were present on voting day in Bangladesh.
When Bangladesh was born in 1971, the people of eastern India also supported the cause of offering shelter to thousands of Muktijodhas (freedom fighters), but many of them did not return to their homeland. Those East Pakistani nationals (numbering probably in hundred thousands) continue to live in the region, the majority in Assam, which has now turned into a headache, as more Bangladeshi migrants continue to arrive to change the demography. The unabated influx of these immigrants, a never-ending political issue in the region, poses a threat to the very existence of the indigenous people. The historic Assam agitation (1979 to 1985) had reflected the anxiety of Asomiya people.
A friendly government in Dhaka may now extend some negotiated ways to deal with those illegal settlers as a priority for safeguarding the interests of north-eastern indigenous communities. Moreover, they look forward to maintaining an improved relation with Bangladesh for exporting items like coal, limestone, stone chips, and bamboo products, with imports of commodities including cement, plastic goods, garments, processed food and beverages. An improved connectivity through road, rail and river routes crossing Bangladesh to the rest of India is also expected with a favourable government in Dhaka. Potential tourism revenues from Bangladeshi nationals and the use of Chittagong port as well as Sylhet airport are also expected to give dividends to the landlocked regions of the north-east.
(THE WRITER IS A GUWAHATI-BASED SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STATESMAN)
