Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has on Friday morning tweeted his congratulations to BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman following his party’s landslide victory in Bangladesh’s national elections may make a personal effort to cultivate the newly minted leader.
Top Bangladesh officials said there was a distinct possibility of the two talking to each other soon, marking a new chapter in relations between the two neighbours, which have been frosty for some time.
India’s discomfort with an evidently inimical Mohammad Yunus-led government in Dhaka has been well know. Relations had dipped to a new low when it was suspected that the current regime had engineered protests outside Indian missions in Bangladesh which included instances of attacks.
However, analysts do not expect an immediate rush towards bonhomie but rather a measured and structured approach.
Despite the BNP’s victory, Rahman is unlikely to move too swiftly in warming ties with India.
Anti-India sentiment has long been a potent political instrument in Bangladesh’s domestic politics. Any perception of being overly eager to court New Delhi could hand ammunition to his political opponents seeking to portray the new government as compromising national interests.
As a result, progress on two of the most sensitive bilateral issues, trade and river water sharing, is expected to be steady but not necessarily on the fast lane.
Bangladesh has consistently sought expanded market access and resolution of long-pending water-sharing agreements. India, for its part, remains concerned about security cooperation and regional strategic alignment. “The negotiations are likely to proceed in a pragmatic but measured manner,” top Indian officials said.
Zafar Sobhan, a prominent Bangladeshi intellectual and editor, argues that the incoming BNP government faces multiple challenges beyond foreign policy recalibration.
“The relationship with India is certainly one,” he notes, “but it is only one among several major tests.”
A second major challenge will be managing the political future of the Awami League. The BNP has long demanded restrictions on its principal rival. However, outright political exclusion carries risks, both domestically and internationally. Some degree of accommodation may ultimately prove necessary to preserve political stability and democratic credibility.
The most sensitive issue, however, revolves around former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Bringing Hasina back to Bangladesh would be politically explosive. It could inflame domestic tensions, provoke street mobilisation, and complicate Dhaka’s internal politics to the extent that there could be a swift change in government.
Not to speak of complicating relations with New Delhi, where she currently resides. At the same time, the BNP cannot openly advocate her continued exile in India without appearing politically compromised.
For the new government, therefore, allowing Hasina to remain abroad may be the least destabilising option, while paying lip- sympathy to the old Yunus demand for her return.
The coming weeks will test the BNP’s political dexterity. It must reassure domestic constituencies, stabilize a polarised political landscape, and recalibrate relations with India without appearing subservient.
BNP’s sagacity will also be tested on other fronts. Journalists and academics such as Shyamal Dutta, Prof Abul Barkat, who were carted off to jail on various charges ranging from murder, spying, to corruption, may not immediately be freed.
But with the gag earlier seen on Dhaka’s media taken off, their cases may not be adjudged in the perfunctory and vengeful manner that was clearly visible.
The gossip in Dhaka is that several of the top advisors in the interim government will exit Bangladesh altogether, while others will stay on and rejoin their professions as university teachers, media-persons or NGOs.
Law Adviser Asif Nazrul wants to go back to research. Foreign Adviser Md Touhid Hossain wants to concentrate on writing, while Food and Land Adviser Ali Imam Majumder will go back to being a columnist.
Two women in Yunus’s cabinet want to go back to their NGOs. Social Welfare Adviser Sharmeen S Murshid is likely to return to her NGO ‘Brotee’ to work on human rights issues, while Climate Change Adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan will return to her legal NGO – Bela.
