As the parliamentary election dates in Bangladesh drawing closer (polls are expected by the end of the year), political activities are reaching a feverish pitch within both the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

The BNP has not been forthright so far in declaring whether it would take part in the elections or not. Yet, it is keeping the government and the AL on tenterhooks by maintaining a mysterious silence that makes the suspense murky and has led to a flurry of speculation.

In this political scenario, the BNP has stepped up its attempts to reach out to Indian policy-makers to gain acceptance and solicit support to contest the elections. The BNP and the Indian polity have an immense trust deficit owing to the party’s track record of anti-India actions in supporting and harbouring dreaded Indian insurgents, even hosting them in Bangladesh.

It has also incurred the wrath of the Indian establishment for partnering the right-wing, radical Islamist Jamaat e Islami (JeI) which has been very demonstrative in its anti-India and pro-Pakistan rhetoric plus its open opposition to liberals and secular individuals.

To reduce this trust deficit, BNP has made several overtures to India. And towards this objective, as already commented in these columns, a high-level BNP delegation visited India in early June and interacted with several think tanks and Bangladesh watchers.

This was also an apparent attempt to elicit at least moral support from India and to find its bearings after seeming to have lost its way in the aftermath of several criminal corruption-linked cases slapped on BNP leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and her incarceration. She continues to languish in prison and her exiled son Tareq Rahman is calling the shots from London.

With no imminent prospect of Begum Zia being freed, BNP has doubled its efforts to secure her release and despatched delegations to other countries to take up diplomatic offensives. In furtherance of their objective, the BNP leadership is reported to have contacted a section of the BJP leadership through a serving Minister and held parleys in India trying to prevail upon New Delhi to use its good offices to give some degree of legitimacy to the BNP.

If this is done, the party would enter the electoral fray and make its political presence felt in Bangladesh. In other words, it wants to revive itself and wants to use India as its crutch in this political journey.

Meanwhile, the Awami League has also gone on the offensive to neutralise the BNP’s efforts to come closer to India especially in the run up to the elections.
Just a few days ago, AL swept the Gazipur civic elections and its mayoral candidate, Mohammad Jahangir Alam, defeated his BNP adversary, Hasanuddin Sarkar, by a huge margin.

This election is seen as an index to the upcoming polls and the convincing result has bolstered the morale of the ruling party. BNP though has alleged snatching of ballot papers and other malpractices in the polling booth.

Several activists suspected to be close to BNP, have been arrested on drug charges and the Election Commissioner has come under scathing criticism for his partisan attitude. Under these circumstances, it would seem that the BNP and AL would lock horns violently during the election campaign should BNP decide to participate in the elections.

The military in Bangladesh has always been politicised. Of late, though, it is being seen to be apolitical probably because a large number of officers are currently on UN missions, leaving them little time to indulge in domestic politics.

Yet, the recent appointment of Aziz Ahmad as the army chief is viewed as a comforting aspect for AL as he is thought to be a professional and unlikely to take sides in the elections. Earlier, BNP has been demanding deployment of the army for ensuring free and fair elections. The Army’s role, therefore, would be interesting to watch under Aziz’s military leadership.

All said and done, the period preceding the elections would be fraught with excitement and interest. India and its actions would be watched rather closely. Against this backdrop, Hasina’s most trusted confidante and political affairs advisor, HT Imam is expected in India in early July to interact with and address think tanks. His views would determine help see the straws in the wind.

The writer, a retired IPS officer, is a security analyst and Bangladesh watcher. He was also posted in Dhaka in the Indian High Commission. The views are personal.