In what is going to certainly uplift the spirits in the grand old party, a majority of the exit polls predict a Congress victory in the two northern states currently ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The exit polls of the assembly elections in five states are out, and the Congress appears to be certainly ending Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s reign in Rajasthan. And if the exit polls are right then the grand old party might pull the Chief Ministerial chair from under Shivraj Singh Chauhan in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh too.
Chhattisgarh might be the only state that the BJP will be able to retain.
Madhya Pradesh – Exit polls give Congress the edge
In 230-seat assembly in Madhya Pradesh, which the BJP has been holding since 2003, the Congress might win 104-122 seats according to India Today-Axis poll, thus narrowly surpassing the majority mark of 116. The BJP got 102-120 seats and others might get 4-11 seats.
Times Now-CNX, on the other hand, predicts a thumping BJP victory in MP with 126 seats as against 89 of Congress.
In the exit poll conducted by NewsX-Neta, the Congress has got higher seats than the BJP but four short of the majority mark. While the Congress is predicted to win 114 seats, the BJP might get 106 with 12 seats going to others. In this scenario, the others could prove to be the kingmakers.
Republic-Jan Ki Baat exit poll gives the BJP 108-128 seats – a huge range – and 95-115 seats to the Congress, with seven seats going to others.
BJP is likely to get 90-106 seats according to CVoter-Republic TV and the Congress might end up between 110 and 126 seats, which means a clear victory for the party led by Rahul Gandhi. Other parties and independents might take anywhere from 6 to 22 seats. This is one of the two exit polls where the BJP gets less than 100 seats.
India TV gives BJP 122-130 seats and 86-92 to Congress with 12-18 seats to others. CSDS-ABP exit poll suggests that the BJP might end up with 94 seats as against 126 of the Congress and 10 of others.
An average of opinion polls done before 9 November 2018 had predicted that the BJP will end up as the single largest party with 113 seats but without a majority. The exit polls clearly indicate that the BJP’s strength in the state is much weaker than in the last elections when it won 166 seats.
Rajasthan – Raje raj will come to an end
Opinion polls before the elections were unanimous in their verdict that the BJP will not be able to return to power. People in Rajasthan have never given a second term to the incumbent government since 1993. But that all the opinion polls were in favour of Congress (the only such outcome in five states) showed the intensity of anti-incumbency factor against the Raje government in the state.
The majority mark in this 200-seat assembly is 101 – a mark the Congress comfortably breaches in all exit polls.
India Today-Axis gives the BJP 55-72 seats against Congress’ 119-141. Congress gets 105 seats in the Times Now-CNX exit poll with the BJP getting 85. According to NewsX-Neta exit poll, the BJP might get 80 seats and the Congress could end up with 112, with others netting 7 seats.
BJP might fare even worse according to CVoter-Republic TV exit poll which gives 52-68 seats to the saffron party and 129-145 seats to the Congress.
Chhattisgarh – Raman Singh might rule for another 5 years
Raman Singh, the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, is looking to extend his 15-year-long reign by another 5 and most of the exit polls suggest that he just might be able to do that.
According to CSDS-ABP the BJP might get 52 seats and cross the majority mark of 46 in the 90-seat assembly. Congress will end up with 35 and others with 3. This is the only exit poll in which Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a minor but important player in the state, gets no seat.
Republic-Jan Ki Baat places BJP in a range of 40-48 and the Congress in 37-43. The BSP might get 5-6 seats.
In CNX-Times Now exit, the BJP just manages to touch the majority mark at 46. While the Congress gets 35, the BSP might end up with 7 seats and others with 2.
CVoter-Republic TV exit poll suggests the BJP might end up between 35 and 43 seats. The Congress will get 40-50 seats and the BSP between 3 and 7.
India TV gives 42-50 seats to the BJP and 32-38 to Congress. BSP gets 6-8 seats and other end up with 1-3.
BJP appears to be losing according to India Today-Axis polls getting just 21-31 seats, far short of the majority mark. The Congress might win 55-65 seats according to this exit poll with the BSP getting 4-8 seats.
Telangana – KCR will get a major boost for anti-BJP, anti-Congress alliance
Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao is likely to win the first full-fledged election in the state with the Telanagana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) scoring high on all major exit polls. The majority mark in the 119-member assembly is 60.
India Today-Axis exit polls gives 79-91 seats to TRS and 21-33 to Congress, the second major party in the state. In all exit polls, BJP remains a no-show.
With 66 seats according to Times Now-CNX, the TRS might edge past the majority mark comfortably to form a government on its own. The Congress, according to this exit poll gets 37 seats with the BJP ending with 7.
If the Republic Jan Ki Baat exit poll prediction comes true then the TRS might just end up short of majority and forced to look for allies. With 52-65 seats, the TRS could be the single-largest party beating Congress, which might end up with 38-52. The exit poll gives the BJP 4-7 seats and others 8-14 seats.
A clear hung assembly is predicted in the Republic TV-CVoter exit poll with TRS getting between 48 and 60 seats, at least 6 short of the majority mark. As in all the other exit polls, the Congress will be the second largest party with 47-59 seats.
The exit polls indicate that KCR will get a shot in the arm for his grand alliance plans for an anti-BJP alliance without the Congress. The Telangana CM has been meeting other opposition leaders in a bid to stitch an alliance ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Mizoram – Will the NDA conquer all of northeast?
Mizoram is the only state in the northeast which is not ruled by either the BJP or any of its NDA allies but if the exit polls are an indication, the state might become one.
According to Republic TV-CVoter, the BJP won’t be able to do anything but the Mizo National Front (MNF), its ally in the NDA government in the Centre, might end up with 16 to 20 seats. The majority mark in the 40-seat Mizoram assembly is 21. Congress, the ruling party in the state, might have to bite the dust with 14-18 seats.
Times Now-CNX predicts almost a similar show for both the parties with MNF getting 18 and Congress getting 16. Others might end up with 6 seats. These six seats will then become a determinant in whose government is formed in the state.