The Americans have convinced the world about their ultra-strategic capabilities to the point that sovereign leaders accept Washington’s views as their own. The war on terror and the invasion of Afghanistan, and of course Iraq, was thus justified by a silent international community that allowed the US President of the time, George W Bush, to wreak havoc on unsuspecting peoples of a region far away from American shores. Thousands have been killed since, arrested, tortured and maimed as the US set into motion a war that based itself on intelligence information and shadowy conclusions.
The result was predictable. The Middle East is still paying the price for the ‘regime change’ policy that was camouflaged as a ‘war against terror’, where countries like Saudi Arabia ~ guilty of the worst kind of indoctrination ~ remained friends and allies, and secular nations like Iraq, Libya and Syria were and are being targeted for reasons that have little to do with terrorism and more to do with strategic control. But it is in Afghanistan, which has historically levelled all conquerors, where the US is eating crow. And is today talking to the very group that it sought to oust as “terrorists” when it entered the country so many long years ago. And what is more, the Taliban is talking from a position of strength as it has survived the onslaught unleashed not just by the most powerful country in the world, but by its militarily powerful allies as part of Nato.
The US decision to pull out troops in 2014 ~ President Barack Obama knows he cannot renege on this promise without severe domestic repercussions ~ has finally made it confront the reality that was known perhaps to every Afghan but not recognised by the US administration; that the American soldiers would not succeed in vanquishing the Pashtun, or for that matter the Afghan tribes. President Hamid Karzai brought in from the US to head the government in Afghanistan was not able to get the US writ to run outside Kabul, and has since remained where he was. The only difference is that he too is showing his teeth, and can no longer be taken for granted by the Americans as their “puppet”.
So Pakistan, which has taken a huge beating in the process as well, not just militarily with casualties, but also in terms of self-respect and reputation, is back in the picture negotiating talks between the US, and yes, the arch US foe, the mother of all terrorists (the al Qaeda being the father), the Taliban. After trying to bash all into submission, the US has opened talks with the Taliban and Pakistan is the broker. And as the world watched, again silently, the Taliban opened an office in Doha and their spokespersons, till recently hiding in the mountains, emerged to set out conditions for the dialogue. It is now known that the office would have opened a year earlier, except that the Taliban was upset with the US dragging its feet over the release of political prisoners. It is not clear whether this has been resolved as yet, but the talks as they continue will discuss this along with a sequential process to bring the Taliban back as a major political player, if not ruler, in Afghanistan politics. The rest, such as the Taliban must accept the Afghan constitution, is cosmetic with the ‘ayes’ not counting to much in the final analysis.
The US, bereft of a strategy after spending millions, killing countless people, and destroying nations, seems to have been cornered into placing all its Afghan eggs in the Pakistan-Taliban basket. US Secretary of State John Kerry appeared more than upset when he rushed around trying to ensure that the dialogue did not snap because of Karzai&’s angry outburst against the Taliban&’s decision to name the Doha office the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and projecting it almost as a sovereign embassy rather than just a political office. Kerry is reported to have called Karzai thrice in 24 hours, as the Obama administration worked around the clock to retrieve the situation. It seems to have managed that, with talks back on the agenda, for the moment at least.
The Americans basically want to ensure that the pullout of troops is violence-free by getting the Taliban on board. And that a government that takes over, ensures the safety and security of the US troops stationed in the eleven bases across Afghanistan; and that the al Qaeda is not allowed to plan operations against the US and its citizens from Afghan havens. The Taliban has agreed not to allow such attacks from its ‘soil’, although it has still not come out with a blanket statement denouncing the al Qaeda as the Americans want it to.
The sailing is going to be rough, to put it mildly. The Taliban is continuing with the violence, a card it holds and will not let go until it is safely in power. Karzai is not going to be a walkover. India, Russia and Iran will be watching the developments closely and while New Delhi might be placated with a few lollipops, it is unlikely that Moscow and Tehran will allow a government in Kabul that threatens regional peace. Pakistan, a major player, is happy with the recent developments perhaps, but determined not to be edged out of the final picture. It is not playing the broker for free, and wants the US to ensconce it as a major ‘stakeholder’ in Afghanistan with partial control over the ‘assets’. Currently, Taliban leader Mullah Omar has a close relationship with Islamabad, but this may or may not last. Afghan provincial warlords can also be expected to become active as the talks begin, adding to the complexities of an uncertain dialogue.
The Afghan national security forces that are supposed to be taking over the security of the beleaguered country gradually are in no shape to tackle the immense security challenges. About 250 of its men are being killed on an average every month. The training is poor, the equipment mediocre, and the morale certainly not what is required to continue the fight without the aid of the Americans and their flying machines.

The writer is Consulting Editor,
The Statesman