It can be said that India’s Taiwan policy options are limited. We cannot take on the Chinese single-handedly. QUAD’s policy towards Taiwan is somewhat vague and ambiguous. It is here that the question can be answered, as to what can be done? Nay, what must be done? India must think of NATO. Not join it but forge a new one in Asia. Just as NATO is an Atlantic treaty, we should have an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organisation.

A grouping, or a League of Pacific Democracies. As NATO is focused on Russia, IPTO must focus on China and Taiwan. As the country most adversely to be hit by the Chinese occupation of Taiwan and the Strait becoming a Chinese lake, India has little choice ~ it is imperative for our long-term survival. It is time when a reassessment of the Chinese long-term threat is needed. India, like all nations, has a limited defence budget. Within the same, there will always be a competition, no doubt healthy for resources among the three Services for higher allocations. The allocations will have to be tailored to the threat potential of our abiding adversary.

Occupation of desolate, icy heights makes little strategic sense if the current Chinese behaviour in the Indo Pacific is analyzed. With the world’s largest Navy, the domination of the waters is an overriding economic imperative for them. Even if it means taking on the other maritime powers ~ the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Australia etc. It is already happening. The Chinese are adopting the classic power dictum of the greatest maritime power in history, the wise British ~ ‘he who controls the waters controls the trade, and who controls the trade controls the economy’. Looking to the Chinese longterm objective, once the Taiwan Strait is a Chinese lake, their attention is bound to shift to the Malacca Strait.

It is a kind of economic lifeline for the resource-hungry Chinese. Annually, 30 per cent of the world trade and 90,000 ships pass through it. India has the natural advantage in the Great Nicobar Island being located at the mouth of this vital Strait. Fortunately, the British foresaw a century ago the strategic importance of this vital chain of A&N Islands and brought these under the control of the Union Home Ministry long before Independence. This island chain is a matchless natural resource for India. Comprising more than 800 islands, of which not even 10 per cent are inhabited, these add 300,000 sq km to India’s EEZ. It is a natural bonanza for us, the envy of other nations.

In the beginning of the 21st century, the Chinese Navy was made aware of the ‘Malaccan Dilemma’ by the Communist government. India woke up to this natural treasure only in 2021, when it established our first Tri-Service Command. Better late than never. Much earlier, the Chinese navy had been routinely transiting through Malacca Strait with their warships, intelligence ships disguised as “ocean research vessels” and most disturbing, nuclear attack submarines. Taking an overview, the defence of this strategic archipelago alone may eat up the entire Navy budget of India, forget the defence of the entire Western coast facing Pakistan. Hence, we need an Asian NATO for the joint defence of the archipelago. Undeniably, QUAD is a good beginning with the US as ‘partner’.

It is already the head of NATO Strategic Command. But it is not the strategic head of QUAD, only a ‘senior partner’, whatever it may mean in strategic terms. And the other two QUAD ‘partners’ are not members of NATO but strategic allies of US independent of QUAD. Which leaves India as the odd man out, without any alliance in time of a military confrontation or actual conflict. In the absence of a formal military treaty, QUAD members Japan and Australia have fully secured their position visà-vis China through bilateral military alliances. The US is formally committed to their defence in the event of any Chinese adventurism. These are “ironclad” guarantees, in the words of the US President to these two. Incidentally, US has similarly committed “ironclad” guarantees to its other treaty allies in Asia such as South Korea and Philippines.

India similarly needs to forge a formal military alliance with the US, which alone can act as an effective deterrent against China in future, especially in the face of continuing Chinese belligerence in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. The maritime threat is in parallel growing in the form of Chinese adventurism in Sri Lanka and now Maldives. India has the advantage of QUAD membership which can be readily upgraded urgently, on the pattern of the historic NATO alliance. After all, NATO has ensured peace in Europe for almost three quarters of a century now on the strength of a single Article in the Treaty: ‘An attack on any member shall be considered as an attack on all members’.

QUAD is lacking in such a critical provision, which alone can send the right signal to our adversaries. In the absence of the same, the ‘partnership’ sounds comfortable in peacetime but may or may not translate into active support in the event of hostilities, according to Dr. Kissinger. And India, as the frontline state most affected directly, must take the initiative in upgrading QUAD into IPTO. That IPTO can be expanded to include other Asian democracies similarly threatened by China will work to India’s advantage ~ the Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and even Taiwan etc. After all, NATO started with around a dozen countries.

As Soviet Russia became a formidable nuclear power, threatening its small neighbours, NATO responded; it is today an equally formidable military grouping with US in Strategic Command. India must assume leadership of the Asian NATO as we just may find that US already has its (military) hands full in Asia ~ with the Philippines, Japan, South Korea and Australia. As it is committed to “ironclad” guarantees to all of them in Asia, the US may already be saturated with ‘leadership fatigue’, which is what former US President Trump openly hinted at. History is a very harsh judge. It does not forgive those that forget its lessons. Let it not record that on its ‘day of reckoning’, India was not upto IPTO

(The writer is a retired IAS office)