Bangladesh goes to the polls later this year. In Asia, this election will be closely watched. It will be of special interest to India and China. Politics in Bangladesh is run by two major political parties, both led by dynastic rulers.

The present ruling party, the Awami League is headed by Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the father of the nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. The other major party in the fray is the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), led by Khalida Zia, the wife of the former Bangladesh army officer and ex-president Zia-ur Rehman.

In the last elections in 2014, the BNP boycotted elections claiming the government led by Sheikh Hasina refused to follow constitutional provision and appoint an interim government.

The state nonetheless went through with the elections and the Awami League stormed to power. This time the BNP would participate, however there have been internal developments which make observing the elections important.

Economically Bangladesh has been making progress. The GDP has been rising steadily, however unemployment remains a major concern. Its GDP would cross that of Pakistan by 2020.

Bangladesh has been taking loans from China, which could add to its financial burdens, if it is unable to repay. Being India’s neighbour, China would demand its pound of flesh, in terms of a strategic base which could enhance India’s security concerns.

Fundamentalism has been growing within the nation, with terror groups like the Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) gaining ground.

Between January 2005 and December 2017, over 700 people lost their lives to terror strikes, with 90 per cent of the incidents being after 2013. These militant groups have some presence in Indian districts bordering Bangladesh. The ISIS and the al Qaeda in the Indian sub-continent claim their presence in the country.

Minorities have been regularly targeted, adding to alienation. ISIS has taken responsibility for attacks on foreigners, homosexuals, Sufis, Shias, Ahmadis and Hindus. Islamic militants have targeted secular writers and bloggers. Dozens of Bangladeshis have gone and fought alongside the ISIS in Syria.

The arrival of Rohingya refugees were an added burden on the most densely populated nation in the world. It enhanced tensions with Myanmar. Rohingyas are known to have even been involved with Bangladesh militant groups. While many nations including India supported Bangladesh by providing aid to fund the management of Rohingya refuges, however, the issue needs to be resolved as they remain a financial burden.

Politically the nation is in turmoil. Khalida Zia has been handed a five-year sentence for graft and is banned from participating in elections. Her son was also convicted in a similar case earlier and remains in self-imposed exile. Thus, the party lacks credible leadership. Whether she gets a reprieve is to be seen.

The tough stance adopted by Hasina by establishing the International Crimes Tribunals (ICT) and trying those responsible for supporting the Pakistan army during the freedom struggle has broken the back of the third political party, the radical Jamaat-e-Islami.

The court has convicted and hanged six for war crimes till date. Most of those tried were either from this party or the BNP.

The Jamaat-e-Islami is banned from participating in elections on the directions of the court. Therefore, the current elections would remain between the two major political parties only.

The outlook of both political parties remains vastly different. Sheikh Hasina is strongly pro-Indian and during her watch, no Indian anti-national group was able to establish any foothold in Bangladesh. The activities of the Pakistani ISI were curbed.

The actions of the ICT, in convicting pro-Pakistan supporters only worsened relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Hasina stood by India in condemning Pakistan in the UN General Assembly as also in refusing to attend the SAARC summit in Islamabad in 2016.

Anup Chetia a top leader of ULFA was handed over by Bangladesh in 2015 after being in the country for eighteen years and in November 2017, five militants belonging to Manipur and Nagaland militant groups were handed over.

Thus, there has been close cooperation between the two countries on terror issues. Most key problem areas including the handling of enclaves have been resolved. However, an unresolved issue remains the sharing of the Teesta and Feni river waters, mainly due to the resistance of Mamata Banerjee.

Khalida on the other hand has always been an Indian baiter. During her term in office, India was blamed for all ills in the country. She moved closer to China, opened doors to the ISI and sheltered anti-India group leaders in the country, including from ULFA. Thus, her party’s emergence to power would be disadvantageous to India.

Internally, the nation had multiple military coups from the time of assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman in 1975 till 2007-08. Thereafter the army has remained in the background and supported the government in power.

The army controls the Bangladesh Rifles, equivalent to the BSF and thus remains the most powerful institution in the country. It is the power behind the throne. It has watched the side-lining of Khalida Zia by the courts and has supported the actions of the ICJ.

For India, continuation of the present government is ideal as relations between the two nations are on an even keel.

However, whichever government wins, the army would remain the power behind the throne. The Indian and Bangladesh armed forces have traditionally been in close touch. The Bangladesh army chief visits India regularly.

The two nations also have regular military exchanges, joint exercises and training. A major event jointly celebrated is Vijay Diwas, when freedom fighters from Bangladesh’s erstwhile Mukti Bahini visit India and veterans of the 1971 war from India visit Bangladesh.

Hence military diplomacy is the right approach for India to convey its security concerns. It is their army which, if convinced, would ensure that national policies remain unchanged, proximity with India continues while Pakistan and China are kept at bay.

There are some limits to what foreign offices can do and there are occasions where military diplomacy may produce better results. Bangladesh is a clear example.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.