It is quite evident that Russia is intent on sustaining the pressure on Ukraine despite reports that the Kremlin is willing to pull back some troops from the border areas. The geostrategic reality goes beyond such contrived expressions.

Tuesday’s legislative development is, therefore, critical as the Duma, the Lower House of Russia’s Parliament has passed a resolution requesting Vladimir Putin to recognize the Russian-backed separatist territories in Ukraine’s east as independent states. Such a move will signify that Russia will abandon the 2015 peace plan for those territories. More basically, it could heighten the risk of warfare between Russia and Ukraine.

The mastery over the separatist territories has been a topic of contestation. The separatists claim all of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as their territory, but only control about one-third of those lands. Vyacheslav Volodin, the Speaker of the Duma, said the resolution would be signed and transmitted to President Putin without delay. Ergo, the plot in the former Soviet satellite thickens.

The resolution gives Mr Putin another bargaining chip in his talks with Western leaders. Equally is it a point of leverage over Ukraine. The Russian President has iterated “false claims” that Ukraine is carrying out a “genocide” against Russians in the region, known as Donbas. But he has indicated that he will not immediately recognize the independence of these territories.

Instead, Mr Putin is seemingly determined to strive for the implementation of the Minsk peace accord that had been negotiated by Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France in 2015. In the reckoning of Moscow, the accord would rule out Nato membership for Ukraine by allowing Russian-backed proxies in eastern Ukraine to veto foreign policy decisions. Even if Russia pulls back a significant number of units from the western and southern military districts, it will still have sufficient forces to launch serious military incursions, particularly from the north in the direction of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, as well as from the Crimean Peninsula.

Russia has built up a massive military presence in the region, including attack aircraft and rapid response special forces and airborne units. For Ukraine, joining the Nato security alliance is an aspiration enshrined in its Constitution. Russia regards the possibility as an “existential threat”, although Western leaders contend that Nato membership is a distant prospect.

The United States and Nato have said the decision to seek membership should be up to individual countries. In public, however, Ukraine has insisted that there has been no change in its position. But on Monday, the Ukrainian President did not exactly rule out the possibility of dropping his country’s attempt to join Nato ~ “Maybe the question of open doors is for us like a dream.” Meanwhile, the shuttle diplomacy continues, exemplified by Tuesday’s meeting of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, with President Putin. For Ukraine, Nato membership is a desire, but maybe only a dream.