When Samuel P. Huntington writing on the third wave of democratisation across the globe in the late 20th century ascribed it in large part to the ‘demonstration effect’, little did he know that at the close of the second decade of the 21st century an Indian political party would be pinning its hopes on the same phenomenon to come to power in the state of West Bengal.

Yet, as the induction of Trinamool Congress strongman Suvendu Adhikari into the BJP at a massive public rally addressed by Union home minister Amit Shah in Midnapore on Saturday showed, the demonstration effect is very much part of the playbook of the BJP brains trust as it seeks to oust Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee from power in the Assembly election due within the next five months.

It may not be the sole tactic up their sleeve, of course, but it certainly is a significant part of the BJP’s political plan going forward. Already, scores of TMC leaders including six MLAs, an MP and a former MP apart from an MLA each from the Congress, CPI and CPIM have followed Mr Adhikari into the saffron camp. More may follow.

This exodus, as long-time watchers of Bengal politics would recognise, is qualitatively different from a Mukul Roy, once considered Ms Banerjee’s deputy, switching sides ~ though the importance of his desertion lies in, again, the demonstration effect. For he was the first to show that it could be done; that a prominent local leader could have a viable political career in West Bengal outside the dominant TMC.

So, where does that leave the TMC which, till even a couple of years ago, seemed set to storm back to power with marginal losses at best? Well, Miss Banerjee’s go-to response will, it can possibly be predicted, be premised on the ‘aekla chalo re’ rhetoric which she will offer as a purportedly authentic Bengali riposte to Mr Shah’s comment in an interview to a television channel on Saturday – “Mamata di will be left all alone by the time voting takes place.”

The BJP-as-outsider line which the TMC had been banking on to see it through till now has also been upended to a large extent given the galaxy of local talent now available for the BJP to showcase. It is likely, therefore, to come down to performance and the enthusiasm among both parties’ respective core voters.

It is here that the TMC may be worried because despite its vote share being significantly higher than the BJP’s going into the poll, it has the Congress and Left Front, not to mention the AIMM, to contend with for its carefully nurtured Muslim vote-bank. Ms Banerjee’s popularity in the rural hinterland and the sops she has been assiduously handing out over two terms to nurture her constituency ought to stand her in good stead.

But the prospect of Central welfare schemes being implemented without ‘cut money’ going to local toughs is a promise the BJP will take to the people. Will they bite, is the question.