Multiple perceptions exist on the possible impact of upcoming US Presidential elections on Indo-US and US-China relations, especially when India and China are involved in a prolonged standoff. Comments have increased in intensity since the Democratic US Presidential hopeful, Joe Biden, nominated Kamala Harris, as his running mate for Vice President. The policies of Donald Trump, currently seeking his second term, his relations with India and China, as also his views on trade ties are well known, while those of Biden and Harris are unclear.

A known devil is always better than an unknown devil and that holds true for Trump. On the other hand, statements and views projected during electioneering change when responsibility dawns. National policies are formulated by the team, an elected President brings to the White House, rather than on electioneering statements. This would be the scenario with Biden.

Barrack Obama was a Democrat and Indo-US relations flourished under his watch. His two visits to India strengthened relationships and enhanced strategic cooperation. Expecting this to change with the current Democratic candidates in the fray is unlikely. Doubts arise due to statements and comments made by Biden and Harris during their electioneering.

Harris made headlines when she questioned abrogation of Article 370 and enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act. She had stated during one of her presidential nomination speeches, “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping a track on the situation.” She had also objected to External Affairs Minister Jaishankar cancelling his meeting with US lawmakers because of the presence of Pramila Jayapal, stating, “It’s wrong for any foreign government to tell Congress which members are allowed in meetings on Capitol Hill.”

Most of her statements on human rights in India are more symbolic than based on strong beliefs, as is common with politicians vying for the top chair. Her skipping the ‘Howdy Modi’ event was due to her disagreements with the Trump administration and upcoming Democratic presidential nomination rather than differences of opinion with Prime Minister Modi.

Politicians across the globe act similarly and Harris is no exception. She was Biden’s strongest critic during the presidential preliminaries but now sings his praises. Biden nominating her as his running mate makes electoral sense. About 1.4 million Indian Americans are expected to vote this year. The fact that Harris harps on her Indian roots while displaying her African American identity would ensure crucial votes in swing states, especially as Biden’s recent comments had pushed African American voters away.

Comments during electioneering or while addressing groups are more for satisfaction of vote banks and local audiences. These have no international ramifications. Biden had last month released his ‘Agenda for Muslim- American’ communities, seeking to win Muslim-American voters. In the document he had referred to Uyghurs and Rohingyas. He had also mentioned Kashmir and questioned the Indian government on its policies in the region.

This document and subsequent comments led to strong objections from the Hindu American community. Within days, he changed direction and stated that he would strengthen US partnership with ‘natural ally’ India. Biden’s announcement that he is seeking a single term and would pave the way for Harris for the next president won the hearts of the Indian American community. He has carefully played both sides.

Once elected, the president and his group of advisors work together to ensure defence of the country’s national interests, which remain enduring. The well-known quote, ascribed to Lord Palmerston, holds weight, “In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests.”

Policies are drafted by career bureaucrats, who for decades have handled their responsibilities and are aware of the nation’s threats and economic requirements. The top leader’s perceptions may carry influence but will never compromise defending core national interests and maintaining ties with close allies. A leader’s strong beliefs could result in comments on a few uncomfortable internal matters of allies but would never cross a nation’s red lines.

Threats to a nation may change in levels of intensity, not vanish altogether. Alliances take time to develop and sustain. They cannot be dumped or ignored with change in leadership. Despite all the rambling by Trump, NATO and all other alliances have remained intact. His views on the importance of strategic relations with India, need to dominate the Indo- Pacific, and countering a belligerent China have matured over his tenure. Biden has similar views. The difference in Trump’s approach has been employing trade as a weapon of war, which has produced results and hurt the economies of China, Iran and Russia.

China and Iran may desire Trump’s defeat, hoping for an end to the trade and pressure wars, which has damaged their economies and threatened their security. Russia would prefer a Trump victory, as despite his actions, he has always maintained a soft spot for Vladimir Putin. These nations, would, in some form, attempt to influence elections, each for their own reasons.

Currently, the US faces two major threats, terrorism and China, neither of which will go away. India has a role in both and is thus a natural ally. Therefore, for India, there would not be much variation in ties, regardless of who occupies the chair.

In the Indo-Pacific, it is the US which needs Indian participation and hence relationships have deepened over time. The US also seeks to enhance its involvement in the Indian defence market. Attempting to pressure India on issues which bear little global relevance would suit neither country. On occasions, touchy subjects may be raised but they would be handled diplomatically. Trump had offered to broker talks between India and Pakistan but was diplomatically advised to stay away.

No nation can handle all its challenges alone. Allies are essential. India is a regional power. Hence, notwithstanding who wins the election, Indo-US relations would remain strong. If Trump is elected, India would know what to expect. If Biden is, then initial diplomacy would play a major role.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army