With Bangladesh gearing up for yet another parliamentary election, the scenario has become murkier over the past few days. Given her knack for survival and the pro-Islamic BNP’s machinations, last week’s arrest warrant against Begum Khaleda is unlikely to be carried to its logical conclusion. Months before the first vote is cast ~ hopefully not in the shadow of the soldier’s gun as in 2013 ~ the Bangladesh Nationalist Party has signalled its determination (beyond intent) to contest the eleventh parliamentary election.

The message is distinctly addressed to incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League. It would be useful to recall that the last election had run counter to the certitudes of the democratic engagement in a country with a strong theocratic constituency… with the military waiting in the wings as it were.

With the result that the Awami League scored a walk-over victory and the government in Dhaka, helmed by an unchallenged party, has lacked a popular mandate for the past five years. The current mood of the nation suggests that it shall not be easy to repeat such a shambolic exercise.

“No election like the one held in 2013 will be held in Bangladesh any more,” is Khaleda’s message to the political class in general. Implicit too must be the caveat to the Awami League and the election authorities that the date cannot be announced after the random detention of Opposition leaders.

That warning can be contextualised with the arrest warrant that was issued ~ two years after an arson attack on a bus killing eight passengers during an anti-government protest. Furthermore, the charges were filed in Comilla’s trial court very recently.

Inexplicable is the time-lag between the gruesome incident and the prosecution’s action. Small wonder that the timing of the magistrate’s order has intrigued the Opposition. It is hard not to wonder why it took the Awami government two years to suspect the alleged involvement of Khaleda? And then to issue the warrant barely a few months before the country’s renewed tryst with democracy.

Should the BNP leader be guilty of the charge, she will not be eligible to contest the election. The government has, in a sense, advanced a handle to the BNP. Which explains Khaleda’s spirited demand for what she calls an “inclusive election” ~ a condition that ought to be a given in any functioning democracy. It would be Bangladesh’s electoral tragedy if circumstances compel the BNP to boycott the polls yet again. Equally, her demand for a “non-partisan facilitating government before the general election” is unlikely to be readily conceded.

The country cries out for an electoral consensus… and not another bout of discord. Should fundamentalist killers enjoy a quiet chuckle over a political failure, it would be the worst development in Bangladesh at this juncture.