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Simultaneous polls in 3 states?

Although the BJP has been doing very well in local elections in the state, fighting the assembly and Lok Sabha elections without the Sena can prove risky.

Simultaneous polls in 3 states?

Group of women showing their Photo Voter Slip for casting their vote for bye-election of Jind Assembly Constituency at a polling station in Jind on January 28, 2019. (SNS)

The BJP appears to be toying with the idea of holding assembly elections simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls in three states it currently rules. They are Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand.

An indication to this effect came from a top BJP functionary during a deep backgrounder briefing for a group of select journalists last week. The disclosure came like a bombshell because while the BJP has a full majority in Haryana and is in a dominant position in Jharkhand and can therefore do pretty much as it pleases, the situation is quite different in Maharashtra.

In the important state of Maharashtra, the BJP has a coalition government with Shiv Sena and the two partners are currently locked in an intense power tussle. The Sena is threatening to fight the Lok Sabha election on its own and the prospect is worrying the BJP.

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Can it dissolve the Maharashtra assembly without keeping Shiv Sena in the loop? It seems the BJP is playing hardball with the Sena and letting it be known that it will pull out of the government and announce simultaneous elections for the assembly and the Lok Sabha. The aim behind the functionary’s revelation about simultaneous polls seems to be send a strong message to the Sena.

Although the functionary asked the journalists not to report his comments, he obviously knew that word would get to the Sena. For instance, he also revealed that the government would present a full-fledged budget on February 1 and not go in for the vote-on-account that is customary when polls are round the corner. He asked for this information to be kept secret too, but some days later, it was out in several newspapers, attributed to sources.

Clearly, the functionary knew that anything told to the media, even in a backgrounder briefing, cannot remain secret. He obviously wanted the threat about simultaneous polls in Maharashtra to reach the Sena.

Many of the journalists present at the BJP backgrounder briefing felt that the party top brass has more or less decided that it cannot save the alliance with the Sena and is preparing to fight the upcoming elections on its own. By holding simultaneous polls in the state, it hopes that Modi’s personal appeal will see it through both elections and the BJP can return to power in Maharashtra with or without the Sena.

It’s a gamble. Although the BJP has been doing very well in local elections in the state, fighting the assembly and Lok Sabha elections without the Sena can prove risky.

Similarly, in Haryana and Jharkhand, the party is on the back foot because of poor governance over the past four and a half years. Is Modi’s brand value strong enough to overcome anti-incumbency?

The result of the Jind assembly bypoll in Haryana will give an indication of which way the wind is blowing in the north. If the Congress wins, perhaps the BJP will rethink its inclination to hold simultaneous polls in these three states.

Catching up with Mamata

After Mamata Banerjee’s hugely successful show at Kolkata’s historic Brigade Ground, the CPI(M) and BJP are struggling to catch up. Both had planned to hold rallies at the same venue in the month of February.

The BJP’s rally was planned towards the middle of the month and was to be addressed by Narendra Modi as part of the party’s big push in the state. It has now been cancelled, apparently because the local unit is spooked by the massive crowd that turned up for Mamata’s rally.

Local leaders are believed to have communicated to the top brass that they fear they may not be able to match the standards set by Mamata’s Trinamool Congress. The CPI(M), on the hand, is bravely trying to go ahead with its rally on February 3. But its Bengal leaders are also concerned that they may not be able to mobilize the same numbers that Mamata did.

The Left has historically held the biggest rallies in Bengal. A poor showing at Brigade Ground next month will only confirm that the party is heading for oblivion in a state it dominated for 34 years.

Jubilant over Priyanka

It was no surprise that JD(U) vice president Prashant Kishore was jubilant about the announcement that Priyanka Vadra is now formally in politics. His congratulatory tweet may not be politically correct, considering he is on the opposite side of the political fence, but Kishore clearly found it difficult to contain his joy.

It may be recalled that when he briefly switched sides to the Congress and became its main political advisor in the run up to the 2017 assembly election in UP, he pushed very hard for Priyanka to take a leading role in the campaign.

He suggested again and again that she move out of Rae Bareli and Amethi and campaign all over the state. He also wanted her to be appointed general secretary in charge of UP.

Kishore was keen that the Congress contest on its own with Priyanka as its main spearhead and he was confident that the party would do well.

However, brother and sister did not agree with him. Priyanka stayed put in Rae Bareli and Amethi, remained a backroom player and stitched up the disastrous alliance with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP.

Kishore obviously still has a thing for the Congress and Priyanka, as evident from his overjoyed tweet about the latest Gandhi sibling to enter politics. His rivals in the JD(U) wonder whether he will wind his way back to the Congress, now that Priyanka is officially in.

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