The Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency that is going to polls in the third phase in Uttar Pradesh has become a prestige electoral battle for the Samajwadi Party (SP) as the party has to maintain the legacy of Mulayam Singh Yadav in the Yadav belt.

While BJP candidate Jaiveer Singh is challenging SP’s Dimple Yadav, BSP candidate Shiv Prasad Yadav is trying hard to snatch a victory, which seemingly is an unlikely proposition. The way the memories of Netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav) are ingrained in the minds of the people here it is not difficult to guess which way the wind must be blowing. Nevertheless, it has to be seen which way the electorate goes on the May 7, the day the constituency will go to polls.

Counting of votes for the Lok Sabha elections is scheduled to be held on June 4.

The Lok Sabha constituency is a known SP stronghold. In the year 1996, Mulayam Singh Yadav contested the Lok Sabha election from here for the first time. Ever since, there has been no looking back for the SP as its influence on the area grew steadily. The party has won this seat for 10 consecutive elections. Mulayam Singh personally elected MP from this seat for five times while three by-elections from here were won by candidates from the Yadav family to reach Parliament.

In the by-election held after his death in the year 2022, his daughter-in-law Dimple Yadav won by more than 2.88 lakh votes. The question arises how is this magic continuously working in favour of SP for 28 years? The entire credit for this goes to the SP governments in the past that had given its entire focus on the development of the area.

Expressways, Super specialty hospitals, road connectivity to all villages, colleges and other basic facilities are available in this constituency. The only drawback of SP’s governance model was the fragile law and order that still is ingrained in the minds of the people here.

SP President Akhilesh Yadav, who is contesting from the adjoining Kannauj seat which will go to polls in the fourth phase, is leaving no stone unturned to make the smooth passage for his wife.

In fact, the entire Yadav clan, along with Akhilesh’s teenage daughter Aditi, is campaigning for Dimple braving the heat-wave conditions. Bollywood star and SP’s Rajya Sabha member Jaya Bachchan has also campaigned for Dimple intensively. No wonder the SP candidate has a clear edge over his BJP rival, State Tourism Minister Jaiveer Singh.

The strong hold on Yadav vote bank and inclusion of Jaswantnagar in Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency besides her identification as a daughter-in-law of Mulayam will certainly benefit the SP candidate. But BSP’s Shiv Prasad Yadav may dent the Yadav vote bank of the SP, although the chances are little.

However, the SP may suffer losses on account of the law and order situation during the SP regime.

On the other hand, BJP candidate Jaiveer Singh relies on his cabinet ministry and rejuvenation of temples in the area. All Thakur voters will be on his side, but due to greater inclination towards the Thakur caste, he is facing resistance from other castes.

The BJP has so far been giving tickets to Shakya candidates hence the Shakya voters are pitted against Jaiveer Singh. However, PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath rigorously campaigned for him to turn the tables in favour of the BJP candidate.

The BSP, this time, has fielded a candidate after the 2014 general elections. This has given the party cadre an opportunity to unite. A section of Yadavs can even break into the vote bank. But Shiv Prasad Yadav’s setback is that he hails from the Auraiya district, which is not a part of the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency. Hence he can be labelled an outsider.

BSP’s vote bank in Mainpuri for a long time has slipped from the party as it has not fielded candidates from the seat. Uniting them now is a big challenge.

The focus of all the three parties seems to be the caste equation. Yadavs here have a maximum of four lakh voters here. Next come the Shakyas who comprise 2.5 lakh voters. Kshatriya voters are around two lakh, while Brahmin, Pal Baghel, Kashyap and Scheduled Caste voters are one lakh each. The number of Lodhi voters is considered to be 1.25 lakh, Muslim voters are around 70,000. The Samajwadi Party is busy consolidating the Yadav votes and uniting other castes.

The BJP is making great efforts to make a dent in the Yadav vote bank. Their emphasis is on preventing the disintegration of Shakya sects and keeping other castes with him.

In such a scenario, picture of an exciting contest seems to be emerging.

Mainpuri is a parliamentary constituency that comprises five assembly segments, namely Mainpuri ,Kishani (SC), Karhal, Jaswantnagar and Bhongaon.

Voter turnout in 2019, 2014 and 2009 was 56.77 per cent, 60.95 per cent, and 49.67 per cent, respectively.