The BJP has failed to make inroads in Kerala despite NDA rule at the Centre since 2014 and the Congress is on a decline nationally. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the BJP drew a blank, even losing the Nemom seat it had won in 2016. While the BJP outmanoeuvred the Left to assume power in Tripura and has made substantial gains in West Bengal at the cost of the Left parties, its strategies in Kerala have failed to work.

A recent report prepared by the Union Ministers after visiting 144 constituencies in which the BJP was defeated, despite being a chance to win, was put up before the party central leadership the other day. Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta and Thrissur Lok Sabha constituencies in Kerala are also learnt to have been included in the report.

The party’s state leadership’s failure to woo Christian voters and the party’s inability to consolidate Hindu voters have been cited as the main reasons for the BJP’s continued electoral debacle in Kerala. Central Kerala with its significant Christian population can affect results in Ernakulam, Kottayam, Idukki and Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha seats. The community constitutes 18.38 per cent of the state’s total population.

The party leadership has failed to consolidate the Hindu votes in the state. The majority of the Hindu voters are supporters of CPI-M and the BJP has not succeeded in making substantial inroads in CPI-M citadels. The report also blames the party’s state leadership for failing to bring those leaders from other parties who have shown interest in the BJP, to the party fold

The report further states that though the conditions are not favourable for the BJP to flourish in Tamil Nadu and Telangana, the party leadership in these states have established a well-organised system and is successful in attracting people towards the party fold, and thereby increasing the popularity of the BJP. The report is learnt to have suggested that the BJP leadership in Kerala has to work, taking a cue from the strategies adopted in those states

Meanwhile, there are reports that there is resentment among the BJP workers and sympathisers in Kerala over the probe being conducted by the Central agencies in the gold and dollar smuggling case. They feel the probe agencies are soft pedalling the investigations in the cases. They want to see the probe reaching its logical conclusion.

 The Congress has alleged the CPI-M and BJP colluded to undermine the investigation into the gold and dollar smuggling case. Opposition leader VD Satheesan has alleged that there was a CPI-M-BJP deal on gold smuggling probe in exchange for the probe against BJP Kerala president K Surendran in Kodakara hawala case, registered by the Kerala Police and also the charge of threatening and bribing a fellow candidate who hails from the SC/ST community to withdraw from Manjeswaram assembly elections in 2021.