The 2024 elections will soon be underway, and with only a few weeks left, political parties will compete for control at the national level. The BJP seeks to win 400 seats with the help of its allies, while the opposition group, the INDIA coalition, aims to remove Prime Minister Modi from power. The contest is between Modi and the rest, and there is no clear opposition candidate to challenge the BJP. The NDA has 39 parties, while the INDIA coalition has 26 parties, including Congress. Both will compete in the elections. Some neutral parties are not associated with either.

The Opposition is confident it can raise issues against the Modi government. It is critical of Modi’s inability to tackle the job crisis and condemns the BJP’s anti-Muslim statements. The Opposition accuses the BJP of attacking media and research institutions. Lastly, they claim that democracy is in danger due to the Government’s misuse of power to harass political opponents. The BJP emphasizes Modi’s 10- year tenure and welfare measures and promises more if re-elected. It has formed alliances, and focuses on strengthening its position with able leadership and a strategic plan. In the 2019 elections, the BJP achieved significant victories in the Hindi heartland, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. As the party has already reached its peak in the northern region, it can only increase its seat count in the southern part of the country.

Currently, the party holds only 28 out of 130 Lok Sabha seats in South India. Modi has been focusing on Kerala and Tamil Nadu to gain more support. He regularly visits these states to announce projects and emphasize the party’s agenda. The BJP has stitched up alliances with multiple parties before the polls. The NDA in Andhra Pradesh has become stronger with an agreement between the BJP, Telugu Desam Party led by Chandrababu Naidu, and Jana Sena led by actor Pawan Kalyan. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is monitoring the ongoing farmers’ protest and waiting for a peaceful resolution before making any decisions. In Bihar, the Janata Dal (United) party led by Nitish Kumar has re-joined the NDA, which is expected to benefit the BJP. The Janata Dal (Secular) party in Karnataka has also joined the NDA alliance. The BJP is in talks with BJD in Odisha.

The RLD, led by Jayant Chaudhary, has joined the ruling party in UP, weakening the opposition. The BJP is negotiating with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir. A faction of the Shiv Sena, BJP, and NCP’s Ajit Pawar is leading the coalition government in Maharashtra. The southern states including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, have traditionally been governed by regional parties and the Congress. They have different political beliefs from the BJP, which is why it hasn’t been able to make inroads in the region. Secondly, the BJP is mostly perceived as a party for North India, causing the South to feel excluded and overpowered by Hindi-speaking regions. Tamil Nadu witnessed a movement in the 1950s and 1960s to protest against the imposition of Hindi, and the state still opposes it.

Thirdly, the Dravidian parties successfully produced leaders with charisma, such as M.G. Ramachandran, M. Karunanidhi, and Jayalalitha, which the BJP lacked. Fourthly, Dravidian parties have a strong vote bank and influential pockets throughout the state, whereas the BJP lacks both. Fifthly, the DMK and AIADMK have been alternating in power for the past many years with their strong organisations. Finally, the people of the southern region love movies, and the film industry holds a special place in their hearts. The BJP has been working hard to gain the support of the AIADMK since their alliance ended last year. To the DMK’s horror, the CBI and other agencies have targeted many of its leaders.

In the 2019 general elections, the BJP’s vote share fell to 3.6 per cent from 5.5 per cent in 2014. In Kerala, the BJP needs to establish stronger relationships with smaller parties to challenge the ruling CPIM-led Left Democratic Front and Congress-led United Democratic Front. However, this may be difficult as the BJP’s ideology is not in line with that of smaller parties, and Muslims and Christians in the state are not voting for the BJP. BJP has gained ground in Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Congress has now come to power in Telangana, previously ruled by TRS. Andhra Pradesh has been under regional parties’ rule since its bifurcation. Several political parties and leaders have allied with the BJP to evade scrutiny by government agencies. However, if the BJP wants to meet the target it has set for itself, it must conquer the South and weaken the INDIA coalition.