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Pyongyang’s playbook

Pyongyang appears to be inching closer to its earlier threat to consider suspending a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests amidst an impasse in its nuclear negotiations with America. The latest launch suggests that Kim’s moratorium is already broken. In recent months, North Korea has ramped up its testing activity.

Pyongyang’s playbook

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The latest blast has caused another flutter in the geostrategic roost. North Korea has flexed its muscles as perhaps never in the past 17 years. With China, its ideological guardian angel, so to speak, having lent support to Russia on the Ukraine issue, Sunday’s firing of the longest-range missile is remarkably timely, It is more than coincidental, however, that South Korea’s top nuclear envoy, Noh Kyuduk, spoke to his American and Japanese counterparts in the immediate aftermath of the blast.

The North’s latest missile launch has been described as a “challenge to the international community’s efforts to diplomatically resolve the Korean peninsula issue”. It was addressed no less to the Security Council. The governments in Seoul and Tokyo have agreed to maintain the “security posture” based on the firm South Korea-US alliance and continue efforts for an early resumption of dialogue with the North.

Mr Noh also held a separate phone conversation with his Japanese counterpart, Takehiro Funakoshi, and agreed to continue what they called “close communication and cooperation” to keep the situation on the peninsula under control. North Korea is reported to have fired the missile from the northern province of Jagang, and it flew about 800 km at a top altitude of 2,000 km, according to South Korea’s military.

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The blast marks the North’s seventh show of force this year, one that is by far its biggest weapons test ever since the test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile in November 2017. Close to five years after, the posturing is palpable yet again. Sunday’s test was the North’s seventh this month. The unusually fast pace of tests is suggestive of its intent to exert pressure on the Biden administration over the long-stalled nuclear negotiations.

Pyongyang appears to be inching closer to its earlier threat to consider suspending a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests amidst an impasse in its nuclear negotiations with America. The latest launch suggests that Kim’s moratorium is already broken. In recent months, North Korea has ramped up its testing activity.

Intrinsically, this is intended to demonstrate its military might in the season of the pandemic and a prolonged “freeze in nuclear diplomacy with the United States”. There is little doubt that President Kim Jong-un is reviving Pyongyang’s playbook of brinkmanship to procure concessions from Washington, which intrinsically are international sanctions over the North’s nuclear programme.

There is speculation on either side of the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that the North could halt its spree of testing after the start of the winter Olympics in Beijing in February. Should this happen, it will be a bow in the direction of China, North Korea’s major ally and continental lifeline. Sunday’s test has violated the Security Council resolutions and are a challenge to the international community’s efforts to “denuclearize” the Korean peninsula.

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