The election schedule for the 18th Lok Sabha elections was announced last week. The upcoming poll will feature a multi-party contest, with the ruling BJP-led NDA alliance and the opposition coalition of the INDIA bloc being the primary contenders. The alliances are built, and major parties have announced their candidates. At the moment, it seems a onehorse race, with the BJP dominating the polls and the opposition parties trailing behind. Prime Minister Modi wants to perform a hat trick and win for the third consecutive time.

The Opposition INDIA alliance comprises 26 parties that have formed a pre-poll alliance to challenge the BJP. The coalition aims to field a single opposition candidate against the BJP in the upcoming elections. The Congress party, leading the INDIA bloc, has suffered two consecutive defeats in 2014 and 2019 and significant damage to its image. One of the party’s weaknesses is its over-reliance on past successes and a need for connections with younger generations, including millennials. Congress is a 138-year secular party that used to represent marginalised groups like SCs, STs, OBCs, and Muslims. With the rise of regional satraps, it has been weakened.

The party now claims to be committed to social justice and empowering India’s poor, oppressed, Dalits, farmers, youth, and women with its five guarantees: Yuva Nyay, Bhagidaari Nyay, Naari Nyay, Kisan Nyay, and Shramik Nyay. The Opposition, mainly Congress, aims to challenge Modi by consolidating anti-BJP votes and offering incentives. This strategy worked in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana in last year’s Assembly polls, which Congress won. Congress hopes to gain from the BJP’s anti-incumbency by offering sops and freebies. They also highlight Rahul Gandhi’s recent Bharat Jodo Yatras, which were meant to connect with the people. To succeed, Congress must raise bread-and-butter issues such as inflation, joblessness, and social discord to engage with young voters who play a decisive role in many elections.

They must show an alternate strategy to address them. Some powerful chief ministers of state-level parties dominate their states, making it a tough fight for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in these areas. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and its allies secured only 45 per cent of the votes, while the remaining 55 per cent were up for grabs. Although no national leader can match Modi’s popularity, some influential regional leaders can sway voters in their respective regions. This is particularly true for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh. The biggest challenge for the INDIA coalition is to project a single leader against Modi. Unfortunately, there is an ego clash among the coalition partners, which makes it difficult to agree on someone. Secondly, the BJP boasts a strong organisation with immense financial and political power.

The Opposition doesn’t seem to have a solid and compelling storyline, except for its commitment to safeguarding the Constitution and democratic values. However, most voters are more concerned about basic needs such as food, clothing, and shelter. For instance, Sonia Gandhi’s Aam Aadmi slogan in 2004 resonated well with the masses. Lowincome people generally from live paycheck to paycheck and may not relate to abstract political concepts. The Congress Party is still clinging to its glorious past and failing to acknowledge the current political climate. Congress automatically expects to lead the coalition as the secondlargest party, but other regional leaders with large egos also want to compete with them. It has been losing its leaders to the BJP, and the steady exodus demoralises the cadre.

The Opposition needs a solid counter to BJP’s propaganda that they are anti-Hindu. BJP has grown since 1980; today, it is the biggest party in India. It has a strong organisation with unlimited money power. The party seeks votes in the name of the Prime Minister. Thus, the BJP has a better chance of winning this time. The BJP’s mascot is Modi. His supporters consider him a proactive leader due to his successful implementation of various measures such as Triple Talaq, CAA, revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, and the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The BJP highlights its achievements in the last decade and various welfare initiatives to attract other voters.

The continuity has helped Modi achieve his agenda for the past ten years. Modi has gained international recognition over the past ten years, and India’s position at the high table excites his supporters. The Opposition has accused Modi of being an authoritarian leader who is toppling opposition governments in different states. Additionally, the Modi government is accused of harassing opposition leaders. Yet another allegation is that the BJP poaches on other parties, lawmakers, and leaders.

It has absorbed many second-rung leaders who chose to find better prospects in the saffron party. The 2024 elections will see a high-pitch campaign, as this will decide the future of the Opposition and the BJP. The secret to Modi’s success was a divided opposition. As long as this continues, Modi will continue to win.