The BJP faces a significant challenge in securing a third consecutive victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Rajasthan, especially in light of its previous full majority wins on all 25 seats in both 2014 and 2019.

On one hand, the BJP is trying its best to secure a hat-trick victory in the state but on the electoral field, the reputation of four BJP ministers and the Speaker is at stake. One-on-one contest on 12 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats is getting neck and neck as the voting for the first phase on 12 seats is due on April 19, and the second phase on 13 seats on April 26.

The BJP’s star campaigners are focusing their main goals on four Union Ministers Bhupendra Yadav in Alwar, Kailash Choudhary in Barmer, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in Jodhpur, Arjun Ram Meghwal in Bikaner, and Speaker Om Birla in Kota-Bundi LS constituencies.

Besides, the prestige of the top leaders of the BJP and the Congress is precarious on 12 out of 25 seats. These seats are Banswara, Jhunjhunu, Tonk-Sawaimadhopur, Barmer, Nagaur, Kota-Bundi, Jalore, Sikar, Dausa, Churu, Alwar, and Jaipur.

The Congress is in the doldrums on the Banswara LS seat as its candidate Arvind Damor did not withdraw his nomination papers in support of the INDIA bloc’s Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP) candidate Raj Kumar Roat (sitting MLA in Rajasthan). Both the Congress and the BAP are confused about whether to follow the INDIA alliance norms or contest independently. The Congress and BAP are in a triangular contest with Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya who quit his Congress MLAship and joined the BJP.

The BJP is on a sticky wicket in Barmer, Jhunjhunu, Churu, Nagaur, and Kota LS constituencies where the saffron party faces neck-and-neck contests against its rivals.

It is not going to be a cakewalk for LS Speaker Om Birla in securing a hat-trick win on the Kota-Bundi seat as BJP’s senior leader Prahalad Gunjal, who recently joined the Congress party, commands significant support from a majority of Gurjar, Meena, and minority communities, besides enjoying BJP workers’ internal support. This is giving sleepless nights to the Speaker, who is canvassing door-to-door with his family and supporters in the Hadoti region.

Similarly, the BJP is on rough roads of poll battle in Churu as its MP Rahul Kanswa, who was denied the party ticket and joined the Congress party, is challenging Paralympian Devendra Jhajharia. Former BJP minister Rajendra Rathore, who belongs to Churu district and lost the assembly poll last year and was not considered as a candidate for this seat, will play a decisive role on this seat.

The Nagaur LS seat is another key constituency where Hanuman Beniwal, BJP’s former alliance partner from the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and now an INDIA bloc ally, is giving BJP’s Jyoti Mirdha tough competition through vigorous campaigning. Mirdha, who switched from the Congress to the BJP, is banking on garnering open support from the Mirdha community (Jat), a move that the Modi government strongly believes in.

An Independent candidate, Ravindra Singh Bhati, who was expecting a Congress ticket, has turned the Barmer LS seat into a triangular contest, competing against Union Minister Kailash Choudhary (BJP) and Congress’ Umedaram Beniwal.

BJP’s prominent saint Sumedhanand Saraswati is having a tough poll trail campaign in the Sikar constituency against INDIA block partner of CPI-M Amraram, a farmer leader having the open support of Congress and comrades from adjoining districts of Srigananagar and Haunumangar.

Former Congress chief minister Ashok Gehlot has been actively campaigning in the western districts of Rajasthan for the past month for his son Vaibhav Gehlot, who is contesting against the BJP’s newcomer from RSS, Lumba Ram Choudhary, on the Jalore seat. In the 2019 LS polls, Vaibhav lost the Jodhpur LS seat by a huge margin of four lakh votes to BJP’s Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, who is now the Union Minister.

Congress leader Sachin Pilot’s blue-eyed candidate Murari Lal Meena (former minister) on Dausa and Harish Meena (sitting MLA) on Tonk-Sawai Madhopur LS seat are vying against BJP’s Kanhaiya Lal Meena, a new face, and Sukhbir Singh Jaunpuria (sitting MP), respectively.

BJP’s Jaipur-City seat is not going to be a walkover for Manju Sharma, daughter of former BJP minister Bhanwar Lal Sharma as the former Congress minister and strong young leader Pratap Singh Khachariawas is daily walking on roads and walled city’s narrow lanes, and holding poll campaign meeting with folded hands before the voters.

Union Minister and RS MP Bhupendra Yadav, who replaced sitting MP Balak Nath, is engaged in a one-on-one contest with Lalit Yadav of the Congress, who is a sitting MLA from the Matsya region of Alwar district and enjoys the open support of the Yadav community, one of Congress’ traditional voter bases.

Despite the pros and cons of election complications, BJP contestants hope to secure their seats, relying on either Modi’s face or the charm of the lotus symbol.