India’s merchandise exports contracted to $34.47 billion in September while the imports registered 15% decline to $53.84 billion, compared to the same period last year. The bigger fall in imports led India’s trade deficit to stand at a 5-month low of $19.37 billion in September, making for a year-on-year (YoY) fall of over 30% from $ 27.98 billion recorded in the same period last year.

Global headwinds and recessionary trends in India’s biggest export destinations have led to the sequential fall in Indian merchandise exports.

India’s overall exports in September 2023 is estimated to be $63.84 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of 1.20% over September 2022, said a recent data released by the Union commerce ministry. Overall imports in September 2023 are estimated to be $68.75 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of 13.67% over September 2022.

While addressing the media, the commerce secretary, Sunil Barthwal, said, “Our falling export trend is reversing as green shoots show up. For the remaining six months, there should ‘definitely’ be positive growth in our exports.” “The gap in our exports year on year, which was in double digits, has come down drastically. There is optimism in terms of exports, which we will see in coming months,” he added.

The data further said India’s overall exports in April-September 2023 is estimated to exhibit a negative growth of 2.97% over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-September 2023 are estimated to exhibit a negative growth of 10.14% over April-September 2022.

The commerce ministry in its data said the trade deficit is projected to improve by 47% during April-September 2023 at $39.91 billion while merchandise trade deficit also improves from $140.83 billion during April-September 2022 to $115.58 billion in April-September 2023.

Principle commodities mark positive export growth

In a positive development, at least 11 principal commodities have shown positive growth in export volumes.

Non-petroleum and non-gems and jewellery exports registered an increase by 1.86% from $24.33 billion in September 2022 to $24.78 billion in September 2023.

Electronic goods exports registered a growth of 27.6% at $13.11 billion during April-September 2023. For the same period last year, it registered $10.27 billion.

Ceramic products and glassware exports grew by 50.5% from $0.24 billion in September 2022 to $0.36 billion in September 2023.

Healthcare also shows good numbers with drugs and pharma exports continuing to grow at 9.0% in September 2023 at $2.39 billion from $2.19 billion in September 2022.

Performance of agricultural exports

As per the data shared by the ministry, agricultural exports continue to grow during April to September period in 2023.

The percentage-wise growth in commodities are: spices (1.35%), fruits & vegetables (10.67%), cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (1.89%), oil meals (41.16%), tobacco (7.6%), oilseeds (23.47%), coffee (3.43%), and cashew (0.31%).

Engineering, marine, and iron ore

Engineering goods exports record a growth of 6.8% from $8.34 billion in September 2022 to $8.91 billion in September 2023.

Exports of marine products registered an increase by 4.7% to $0.75 billion from $0.72 billion. Export of another key product – iron ore – recorded a growth of 128% during April-September 2023 at $1.5 billion from $0.66 billion in April-September 2022.