The Indian economy is likely to show resilience during 2023. The basic assumptions underlying future projection are sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its economic growth forecast for Developing Asia to 4.3 per cent this year from its April projection of 5.2 per cent. The region’s economic growth forecast for 2023 was also trimmed to 4.9 per cent from a previous estimate of a 5.3 per cent increase, the bank said in its Asian Development Outlook 2022 Update report released today.
ADB Macroeconomic Research Division director Abdul Abiad said several downside risks loom large, including a sharp deceleration in global growth, stronger-than-expected monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, the Russian invasion of Ukraine escalating, a deeper-than-expected deceleration in China, and negative pandemic developments.”All these factors could all dent Developing Asia’s growth,” he said during the Asian Impact Webinar: Asian Development Outlook 2022 Update today.
He said domestic consumer spending and investment are driving growth as economies in the region continue to relax pandemic restrictions, thanks in part to vaccination drives and declining COVID-19 mortality.
“However, the continuing invasion of Ukraine has heightened global uncertainty, worsened supply disruptions, and unsettled energy and food markets.”More aggressive monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is denting global demand and rattling financial markets,” he added.