Mark Twain once remarked that “Whisky is for drinking; water is for fighting over.” Fresh water is a very precious and limited natural resource even though water covers about 71 per cent of the earth’s surface. Fresh water makes up a very small fraction of water available on Earth ~ between 2.5 and 3 per cent. The remaining 97.5 per cent is saline and in the oceans and seas. Of the fresh water on earth, 68.7 per cent is locked in ice caps, glaciers and frozen; 29.9 per cent is stored underground; 1.2 per cent is found in rivers, lakes, dam, streams and wetlands; and 0.04 per cent is in the form of water vapour in the atmosphere.

The scarcity of fresh water has been aggravated by a number of factors such as climate change, demographic growth, urbanisation, pollution, poor management of water resources, collapsed infrastructure and outbreak of conflicts over water. Indeed, sources of precious freshwater re sources remain unevenly distributed across Earth. While nations like Brazil, the former Soviet States and Canada have an abundant natural supply of fresh water, Nature seems to be less generous to the arid zones of the Middle East and numerous African nations. As per United Nations Watercourses Convention “260+ River Basins are shared by two or more countries and can become sources of tension or cooperation.”

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Water resources and water infrastructure are not only triggers of conflict ~ they can be used as weapons as well. Key facts relating to the global availability of fresh water as identified by UNICEF are: one, nearly four billion people ~ almost two thirds of the world’s population ~ experience severe water scarcity for at least one month each year; two, over two million people live in countries where water supply is inadequate; three, around half the world’s population could be living in areas facing water scarcity by as early as 2025; four, some 700 million people could be displaced by intense water scarcity by 2030; and finally, by 2040, roughly one in four children worldwide would live in areas with very limited water, increasing the risk of illness, water poverty, and conflicts. Territorial disputes, competitions for this precious natural resource, and strategic advantages gave birth to water wars.

Indeed, a wide range of water wars have occurred through history. The former VicePresident of World Bank aptly warned three decades ago that “If the wars of this century (20th century) were fought over oil, the wars of the next century (21st century) will be fought over water.” The term water war is used for describing any conflict between countries, states, or groups over the right to access water resources, though they are rarely traditional wars waged over water alone. Conflicts occur on the interstate and intrastate levels. Interstate conflicts occur between two or more countries that share trans-boundary water sources, such as river, sea, or groundwater basins.

For example, the Middle East has only one per cent of the world’s fresh water shared among 5 per cent of the world’s population and most of the rivers cross international borders. Intrastate conflicts take place between two or more parties in the same country, such as conflicts between famers and urban water users. The Pacific Institute, a California-based think tank, has maintained the most comprehensive available database by gathering, analysing and analysing the litany of water related conflicts from around the world for more than three decades. Its Water Conflict Chronology stands as a significant contribution to efforts aimed at addressing inequalities in water resources management, keeping peace and protecting critical infrastructure and resources during violent conflicts. As many as 1,473 incidents of violence, conflicts and water-related issues were reported worldwide between 1990 and 2023.

The database released by Pacific Institute in December 2023 reveals that over 72 per cent of these incidents occurred in 2014–23, with 671 between 2019 and 2023 and 392 in the preceding five years. This indicates a near 70 per cent rise in water related conflicts over the two periods. Asia and Africa are the main hotpots of water-related conflicts. Almost 80 per cent of conflicts worldwide are concentrated in these regions. Among these are conflicts in which water or water systems have been used as weapons or triggers. Asia is the leading region for water conflicts, where around 57 per cent have been recorded. Africa is the second, with close to 24 per cent of the conflicts, followed by Latin America and Caribbean region (taken as a group, accounting for 10 per cent).

Keeping all these in view, region wise water dispute hotpots may be shown in the accompanying Table -I. Drought and water stress linked to climate change has been a trigger behind rising conflicts in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa which includes countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, and Kenya has the largest numbers of water stressed countries of any other place on the planet and of an estimated 800 million people who live in Africa. In Burkina Faso, at least 32 water facilities were destroyed between January and May 2022, impacting as many as three lakh people. Targeted attacks ranged from direct hits on water points and water trucks, purposeful contamination of water resources to sabotaging the public water network’s generators. Thus civilians’ access to fresh water was massively disrupted. South Africa has a history of denying access to fresh water, making water privatization a contentious issue. Even though SA’s Constitution guarantees the right to sufficient water, it remains unmet.

Hydrological poverty tends to trap people who cannot afford to purchase the food and water they need. Consequently, the unrest over the failure to provide safe water and sanitation is growing. Vandalism of water infrastructure that continues to cripple the Eastern Cape municipality may be cited as an example of water conflict. Undoubtedly, climate change is intimately linked to the occurrence of water conflicts. So, with temperatures on the rise and rainfall becoming more erratic, climate change may trigger water conflicts across SA and Asia, not to mention other regions of the planet Earth. India accounts for 43 per cent of reported water conflicts in Asia in 2019 – a year when more than 40 per cent of the country faced drought and about 17 per cent was under severe drought, according to the Water and Climate Laboratory, IIT Gandhinagar. Close to 500 million people were severely affected during the summer of 2019. That year, disputes over irrigation water and drinking water intensified.

The incidents were reported from several states including Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab. In 2023, the country recorded only six cases, which was the second highest numbers in Asia for the year. India was indeed responsible for almost 11 per cent of water related hostilities in Asia. India’s share of Asia’s water conflicts, as recorded by Pacific Institute can be ascertained from accompanying Table -II. India has the following interstate and trans-boundary water related disputes. Interstate disputes include: (1) Ravi and Beas (the dispute involves Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan); (2) Krishna (the dispute involves Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka); (3) Vamsadhara (the dispute involves Odisha and Andhra Pradesh), and (4) Mahadayi/Mandovi (the dispute involves Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka). Transboundary water disputes exist between India and Pakistan over the Indus and the Sutlej River; and between India and China over the Brahmaputra River.

The Pacific Institute has shown that while interstate water conflicts are increasingly less likely, there appears to be a growing risk of subnational conflicts among water users, regions, ethnic groups and competing economic interests. Data from the Water Conflict Chronology shows these intrastate conflicts to be a larger component of all water disputes, and that the traditional international mechanisms for addressing them, such as bilateral or multilateral treaties, are not as effective. It is also estimated that due to an increase in human consumption of fresh water resources, water conflicts will become increasingly common in the near future.

In 2007, Naho Mirumachi, professor of environmental politics, and John Anthony Allan, a geographer, proposed their two dimensional method ~ Transboundary Water Interaction Nexus (TWIN) ~ to approaching water conflict and cooperation. The model is uniquely split into two parts ~ the horizontal scale (measures cooperation intensity) and the vertical scale (measures conflict intensity). In this approach parties often turn to each other to help decisions and can get hyper-focused on who is right and who is wrong. Water cannot be produced or added electronically or by any process of hydrology. Water crisis vis-à-vis water conflict is inevitably a critical issue for our civilisation. John F. Kennedy, the former US President rightly said:” Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel prizes ~ one for peace and one for science.’

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)