Japan’s politics is riddled with scandals, mostly related to funding or favours to a particular individual or group, and some former Prime Ministers have lost office either because they were directly involved in or were complicit in the scandals. The present Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is now caught by this virus. The immediate fallout of this is reflected in the sudden plummeting of his popularity rating.

Though Kishida has lost no time in taking corrective measures by replacing many of his cabinet colleagues, he still feels handicapped for lack of guidance from any mentor. Probably Kishida should look to a maverick predecessor for guidance on how to deal with plummeting polling numbers and a funding furore in his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The surfacing of the funding scandal has shaken the ruling party to its core.

Though Kishida himself is not directly implicated, the investigation by Tokyo prosecutors compelled Kishida to take immediate corrective steps by sacking many senior officials. Some Cabinet members may also be prosecuted in the coming days. As internal LDP support waned swiftly, Kishida had to take steps to rescue his sinking ship. He undertook many changes in personnel so that his administration could be given a fresh start.

Though these damage-control measures may be appreciated, it seems Kishida has lost his hold on the LDP. The scandal relates to fund-raising parties held by the LDP faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Soon, suspicions of underreporting spread to other factions, including the one Kishida himself once led. The prosecutors reported that the Abe faction was suspected of having distributed about 500 million yen ($3.5 million) in revenues from fund-raising parties to member lawmakers over the past five years without reporting the flow of the money in its political fund reports.

According to a poll conducted by Jiji news agency in mid-November 2023, popular support for the Kishida government had already slid to a record low as the Prime Minister’s tax cut plans to help cushion the blow of rising inflation had left voters unimpressed. In the poll held between November 10 and 13, it was revealed that support for the Kishida government came down from 26.3 per cent in October. In the survey, 51 per cent of respondents said they do not see his tax reduction steps positively.

Kishida’s new economic stimulus measures included cutting annual income and other taxes by 40,000 yen per person, and paying 70,000 yen to lowincome households. Another factor that could have led to decline in popular support was that some senior officials of his administration had resigned. For example, deputy finance minister Kenji Kanda had stepped down over revelations that he had been delinquent on tax payments. In fact, Kanda was the third ruling-party lawmaker to quit the Kishida administration in less than a month.

When the funding scandals broke out in December 2023, the Kishida Cabinet’s approval rate fell below 20 per cent for the first time since the LDP returned to power in December 2012, according to another survey by the Jiji news agency. This means the support rate fell 4.2 percentage points from November, rewriting a low since the LDP’s return for a third month in a row. The disapproval rate also rose 4.9 points to 58.1 per cent, which is the highest since LDP retook the reins of government. For the record, the last time an approval rate for an LDP-led Cabinet stood below 20 per cent was in September 2009, when the administration of then Prime Minister Taro Aso logged 13.4 per cent.

That was just before the now defunct Democratic Party of Japan seized control of the government from the Aso administration in a general election. The latest survey of December 2023 showing the public support rate falling below the key threshold of 30 per cent for the fifth straight month, signalled that the Kishida administration is already in the “danger” zone. Thus, following the party’s political funds scandal and with 17 per cent support, Kishida’s government is in dangerous territory. It was the worst figure for a prime minister from the LDP in more than a decade. The LDP’s support rate suffered as well. It slumped to 18.3 per cent, the lowest since the party regained power in December 2012. With a view to contain the worst crisis of his administration, Kishida replaced a dozen ministers and officials in political posts who were caught up in the scandal over unreported political funds. He replaced Hirokazu Matsuno and brought in former foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi as the new chief Cabinet Secretary. Hayashi is the No.2 man in a party faction headed until recently by Kishida. At the same time, Matsuno, three Cabinet ministers and eight political appointees in the administration ~ all members of the 99- member LDP faction named after Abe ~ resigned.

Earlier, on 12 December, Seiji Kihara, an LDP acting secretary-general and a close associate of Kishida, met Yasukazu Hamada, a former defence minister, and informed him about Kishida’s choice of him as the new Cabinet Secretary. Though Hamada does not belong to an LDP faction, he served as defense minister until September 2023 as he extends support to the Kishida administration. Hamada expressed that he is not qualified to serve as chief Cabinet Secretary.

Probably Hamada felt that the burden would be too heavy, though rumours in political circles were quick to observe Hamada was unwilling to board a sinking ship. The choice thus fell on Yoshimasa Hayashi, a close faction ally, to replace Matsuno. Though Koichi Hagiuda, the LDP policy chief and a key functionary of the Abe faction of the LDP, tried to persuade Kishida to retain younger lawmakers serving as parliamentary secretaries, Kishida was aware that Hagiuda himself was embroiled in the fund-raising scandal and overlooked his suggestion.

Anticipating that Kishida would dump him from the LDP executive line-up, Hagiuda submitted his letter of resignation on 14 December. Kishida had given many government posts to Abe faction members as he needed their support to stabilise his administration. As expected, removing all of them led to displeasure among all Abe faction members. Despite the damage-control measures, it is to be seen if Kishida can survive in office for long since politics in Japan has always been volatile.

RAJARAM PANDA The writer is former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library (PMML), New Delhi. Earlier he was ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan, and Senior Fellow at the MP-IDSA, New Delhi