MAGA,” standing for “Make America Great Again,” is one of the new words Merriam-Webster added this October. And it seems that the MAGA star, President-elect Donald Trump, wants American territorial expansion to proceed towards “greatness.” Mr Trump declared his plans to reclaim the Panama Canal, buy Greenland from Denmark, and make Canada the 51st state of the US just weeks before taking office for a second term.

Trump said he may even use military force to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal and “economic force” to annex Canada. He said, “You get rid of that artificially drawn line (USCanada border), and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security.” Many international borders, however, are artificially drawn lines. Why is Trump showing a different approach for Canada? Does he really want to annex Canada into American territory? In fact, Trump is unhappy with the US spending billions of dollars protecting Canada and also with the around the $40 billion American trade deficit in bilateral trade with Canada due to imports of Canadian cars, lumber, and dairy products. Also, Trump is unhappy with Mexico and Canada too for illegal immigrants intruding into the US from Mexico, as “they come through Canada, too,” Trump said.

Advertisement

After becoming President-elect, and clearly in violation of the United StatesMexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Trump threatened to levy a 25 per cent tariff on Canada and Mexico. Trump’s concern for treaties is certainly wellknown by the fates of the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Treaty. Now, the tariffs would clearly be damaging to Canada’s economy, which relies heavily on its trade with the US. Trump knows that well. Thus, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was compelled to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. Trump, however, made fun of him by referring to him as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada” in a social media post on December 10 just after dinner together.

“Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State…,” wrote Trump on Truth Social. Trump promised that if Canada joined the US, it would “be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships,” taxes would drop significantly, and there would be no tariffs. Surprisingly, most Canadians are unimpressed by these apparently lucrative offers. According to a December 2024 survey of 1,520 Canadians aged 18 or older by the Canadian market research company Leger, 13 per cent of Canadians say that they would like Canada to become the 51st state of the United States, while 82 per cent say they would not like the idea.

Trump, however, may find it a bit more favourable as Conservative (21 per cent) and People’s Party (25 per cent) voters are more likely to be in favour of Canada joining the United States. Trudeau, however, has consistently rejected Trump’s idea of Canada becoming the 51st state. “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Trudeau stated on X. He revealed that he jokingly suggested trading Vermont or California to President-elect Donald Trump in response to Trump’s interest in annexing Canada. Also, Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, jokingly said Canada should purchase Minnesota, Minneapolis, and Alaska instead. Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who attended the Mar-a-Lago dinner, downplayed Trump’s comments, saying the president-elect was “teasing us” and “telling jokes.” Canada’s minister of foreign affairs, Melanie Joly, also said on X, “President-elect Trump’s comments show a complete lack of understanding of what makes Canada a strong country. Our economy is strong. Our people are strong.

We will never back down in the face of threats.” As a businessman first and foremost, Trump probably has a 360- degree mercantilist perspective on international affairs and the economy. His Greenland and Canada offers may be partly to counter the danger of Chinese and Russian Arctic incursions. Additionally, the Arctic region is home to 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and almost 30 per cent of its undiscovered gas, according to the US Geological Survey. An estimated $1 trillion worth of rare earth metals are found beneath the Arctic ice. Because it creates shorter trade routes and access to resources in the area, the melting Arctic ice is a warning. Furthermore, this is not the first time that America has sought to annex Canada. In the past, Canadians have opposed American annexation aspirations. The danger of an American invasion led to the formation of the Canadian federation in 1867 when the province of Canada (modern-day Ontario and Quebec) joined forces with New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Additionally, the notion of Canada becoming the 51st state in the US has been around for a while. In fact, the Woodrow Wilson Centre, a research tank, discussed the potential outcomes of a merger between the US and Canada in 2014. The conversation took place following the publication of a book supporting the union, titled Merger of the Century: Why Canada and America Should Become One Country that was authored by conservative writer Diane Francis. Francis outlined the existential challenges facing the United States and Canada. While she foresees a “Cold War 2.0” for the United States, according to Francis, the problems facing Canada include its inability to develop its own resources (especially in the Arctic), the brain drain to the United States, the thickening of the border, Canada’s potential demotion from the G20 in the next 10 years, and a decrease in tourism. In conclusion, she stated, “Let’s fast track integration with the United States and eliminate some of these problems.”

According to her, “the countries would become an energy and economic powerhouse, occupying more land than Russia or the continent of South America” if the US and Canada merged. An expert group came to the conclusion that the European Union’s framework for “enhanced cooperation” should serve as a model for Americans and Canadians. Despite such a long-standing (mostly) Republican perspective, the likelihood of Canada joining the US in the near future is, at best, slim, notwithstanding Trump’s statements. However, the president-elect’s increasing rhetoric may indicate that US-Canada relations are about to deteriorate, and his proposal to impose across-the-board tariffs on all foreign imports is likely to have a significant impact on trade.

But does Trump genuinely want to annex Canada? Perhaps not. The electoral landscape in America would be drastically changed if Canada were to become the 51st American state. Canada, having a population larger than that of California, would almost surely give Democrats 54+ electoral votes, upending the political balance in the US. The Republican top brass can’t simply afford that. Therefore, Trump’s hullabaloo about Canada might just be to soften the blow of his planned 25 per cent tariff plan.

Trudeau also knows it well; he has said Trump’s talk of annexing Canada is just a tactic that he is deploying to distract people from the impact of his proposed tariffs. Or, in a slightly twisted idea, is Trump’s goal to create both a conservative state and a liberal state when he annexes Canada to the US? Nonetheless, a few of Trump’s most outspoken backers have persisted in using the joke. On Truth Social, Trump shared an AI-generated photo of himself and the Canadian flag on a mountain, writing, “Oh Canada!” However, the mountain range looked like the Swiss Alps, with a Matterhornlike peak in the background. His proposal for territorial expansion to usher in America’s “golden age” appears equally ludicrous!

(The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute.)