The joke doing the rounds in America is that if it is eventually President Joe Biden who faces off against his predecessor Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential poll, artificial intelligence (AI) will emerge the clear winner. But the impact of AI on American politics is no laughing matter. That the Republicans have already used an AI-generated video to criticise Mr Biden shows how likely AI is to transform campaigning for the forthcoming election.

According to technology and governance expert Darrell M. West, the dizzying speed of advances in digital technology not only provide newer and faster tools for political messaging, but could have a profound impact on how voters, politicians, and the media see the candidates and the campaign. It is no longer about photo-shopping. Wholesale digital creation and dissemination is going to inform the campaigns of the presidential candidates.

And while claims and counter-claims are part of the rough and tumble of any democracy, the fear is that the result of the US presidential election could turn on the limited ability of voters to distinguish fake from real campaign material. For example, says West in a recent article, the Republicans released their video right after President Biden’s re-election announcement ~ apparently, there was no extensive shooting, editing, or review; the tech tool (AI) was simply asked to put together a video that detailed a dystopian US future if Mr Biden were to be re-elected. Experts agree that as the campaign gathers pace in the coming months, response times may drop to minutes.

AI is both the cause of this likely change and will be the prime beneficiary of it. AI can scan the internet, think about strategy, and come up with a hard-hitting appeal instantly, thus undermining the role of highly paid consulting firms with their teams of videographers and designers. Because AI enables granular audience targeting, which is vital in political campaigns, it can be a game changer.

As West iterates, candidates do not want to waste money on those who already support or oppose their campaign ~ they would much rather target the small number of swing voters who will decide the actual election or suppress the turnout of those supporting the other campaign. This is particularly important in the American context because political polarisation is at record highs and only a small percentage of voters say they are undecided at the presidential level. According to an April 2023 Emerson College survey, only six per cent of the electorate is undecided.

The predicted closeness of the US presidential poll will surely lead to AI being used extensively by the candidates. Significantly, neither individuals nor organisations are required under American law to disclose that they used generative AI to manufacture videos or develop specific campaign appeals. Best of luck with that.