The Economic Survey 2024-25 said India’s GDP at constant prices grew by 6.7% and 5.4% in Q1 and Q2 FY25, respectively. This implied a real GDP growth of 6% in the first half of the current fiscal.
“Keeping in mind the upsides and downsides to growth, real GDP growth in FY26 is expected to be between 6.3 and 6.8%. From an aggregate supply perspective, real gross value added (GVA) is also estimated to grow by 6.4% FY25,” the survey said.
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V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) in the Economic Survey 2025, said the Indian economy is on a ‘steady growth path’, and the macroeconomic health checklist looks good.
“As the country aims to accelerate its economic growth rate in the coming years, it has the tailwind of strong balance sheets in the domestic corporate and financial sectors. But, globalisation is on the retreat,” he said.
Hence, raising the growth average in the next two decades will require reaping the demographic dividend through a deregulation stimulus. As the Spartans apparently believed, “the more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war”. This Economic Survey is all about that, or so we would like to believe.
The Economic Survey highlighted that the real GVA grew by 6.2% in H1 FY25. A strong growth momentum in Q1 FY25 was followed by a subdued performance in Q2 FY25. The agriculture and services sectors emerged as key growth drivers during this period.
It said that the overall growth was tempered by moderation in industrial growth, particularly in manufacturing, which faced challenges from slowing global demand and supply chain disruptions.
The survey highlighted that the industrial sector grew by 6% in H1 FY25.
Further, the Q1 saw a strong growth of 8.3%, but growth moderated in Q2 due to three key factors.
First, manufacturing exports slowed significantly due to weak demand from destination countries, and aggressive trade and industrial policies in major trading nations. Second, the above average monsoon had mixed effects – while it replenished reservoirs and supported agriculture, it also disrupted sectors like mining, construction, and, to some extent, manufacturing. Third, the variation in the timing of festivities between September and October in the previous and current years led to a modest growth slowdown in Q2 FY25.
