‘Climate situation is alarming’

This year, India once again witnessed a very brief spring, with winter transitioning almost directly into summer. The situation is unlikely to improve in the coming years, as climate change-induced shifts in weather patterns appear to be long-term. India, along with Southeast Asia and other tropical regions between the Equator and 20 degrees North and South, is warming rapidly, and the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly visible.

The impact is also evident in the crucial monsoon season – vital not only for groundwater, agriculture, and energy, but also for the overall well-being of the people and the country’s economy. Vibha Sharma of The Statesman spoke to Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet, to understand the present situation and what the future holds.

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Q. This year again, summers seems to have followed winters almost directly, with hardly any spring. Why is this happening?

A: Yes, this year again, temperatures rose rapidly even before March. In the first week of March, temperatures reached 40-42 degrees Celsius in parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Vidarbha . In Delhi, maximum temperatures were 5-7 degrees C above normal during the first 10 days of March. Over the past three to four years, we have consistently observed a rapid rise in temperatures during March. The transition from winter to summer has become very short, and the spring season is shrinking. Earlier, spring would last nearly two months, but now it is reduced to 10-20 days, or sometimes disappears altogether. By February, temperatures begin rising, often reaching the low to mid-30s degrees C in North India by the end of the month. The transition phase from winter to summer has become very abrupt. One major reason is the reduced frequency and intensity of western disturbances this year. Snowfall was low, and winter rainfall over northwest India was almost absent. As a result, conditions remained dry, with little soil moisture. This dryness, combined with solar radiation, led to a rapid rise in temperatures. These changes can also be attributed to climate change and global warming. Each year is becoming warmer than the previous one, with new temperature records being set regularly.

Q: Is this situation global, or specific to India?

A: We cannot say the situation is identical worldwide, but in India, it is certainly alarming. Temperatures are rising rapidly, and seasonal transitions are becoming more abrupt. In North America, temperatures are relatively stable, but in Europe and Canada, heatwaves have become more frequent and intense in recent years. Tropical regions, particularly those between the Equator and 20 degrees latitude, are warming faster, and climate change impacts are more visible there. Weather patterns in these regions are also changing significantly. Rainfall patterns, for example, have shifted. Earlier, rainfall was more continuous, especially during the 1980s and 1990s. Now, rainfall tends to occur in short, intense bursts rather than over extended periods. This increases the risk of cloudbursts, flooding, and other extreme weather events. At the same time, winters and spring seasons are shrinking, while summers are expanding and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Q : Why were there fewer western disturbances this season?

A: The frequency and intensity of western disturbances depend largely on the flow of the westerly jet stream. Sometimes, this jet stream shifts to higher latitudes, carrying disturbances towards regions like Tibet, China, and Russia instead of the western Himalayas. This year, higher latitudes received more rain and snowfall, while the western Himalayan region saw very limited activity. Normally, western disturbances begin affecting the region from November, but this year, November and December remained mostly dry, leading to drought-like conditions. The first significant snowfall occurred on January 23 in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, followed by another strong disturbance on January 27. After that, although disturbances occurred, their intensity remained weak. This led to reduced snowfall and minimal winter rainfall, which in turn caused higher temperatures across the northern plains and parts of central India. From mid-March, the intensity of western disturbances increased slightly, bringing some rain and thunderstorms to northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh. Overall, the primary reason for higher temperatures this year has been the lack of strong western disturbances, reduced snowfall, and almost no winter rain. As a result, heatwave-like conditions appeared as early as the first half of March, especially in Gujarat, south Rajasthan, and Vidarbha.

Q: IMD has predicted more heatwave days ahead. What is your view?

A: The IMD’s prediction of more heatwave days is correct; we, at Skymet, share a similar view. However, the remaining days of March may no t se e intense heatwaves, as pre-monsoon activities – such as thunderstorms, dust storms, and rainfall – have started earlier than usual. These activities typically begin in late March but have already commenced around mid-March this year. This may temporarily keep temperatures under control. However, during April and May, the situation will depend on the frequency of these pre-monsoon events. If such activity is frequent, it may provide intermittent relief from heatwaves. But if dry conditions persist for several consecutive days, heatwaves will intensify across large parts of the country. We also expect eastern India to experience more heatwave conditions this year. Additionally, with the possibility of El Niño conditions developing during the monsoon, there is a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which could further intensify heatwaves during the pre-monsoon period.

Q: What are your expectations for the upcoming monsoon? What do SST trends – El Niño and La Niña – suggest?

A: The upcoming monsoon may not bring the same level of rainfall as seen in previous decades. Currently, La Niña conditions are weakening, and we are transitioning toward El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions, which may persist until June or July. After that, there is a possibility of El Niño developing during August or September. Historically, an evolving El Niño tends to be more disruptive than the one already established in a season. In nearly 60 per cent of such cases, rainfall tends to be below normal. This means the second half of the monsoon season could be adversely affected, increasing the likelihood of an overall below-normal monsoon.

Q : Many cities a real so experiencing stronger urban heat island effects. Why is that happening ? Is it due t o urbanisation?

A: Urbanisation plays a significant role. Most metro cities, especially Delhi-NCR regions such as Faridabad, Gurugram, and Noida, are experiencing strong urban heat island effects. Rapid construction of high-rise buildings has led to a reduction in green cover. Forests and vegetation are being replaced by concrete structures. Unlike vegetation, concrete surfaces absorb and retain heat, leading to higher temperatures. In addition, higher population density in urban areas increases energy consumption, especially due to air conditioning and vehicular traffic. This leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, further contributing to warming. Overall, urbanisation not only increases local temperatures but also contributes to broader climate change.

Q : Are current heat wave definitions and warning systems adequate?

A: At present, heatwave definitions and warning systems are adequate. A heatwave is declared when the maximum temperature reaches at least 40 deg C and is 4.5 deg C above normal. If the deviation exceeds 6.5 deg C, it is classified as a severe heatwave. Independently, if temperatures reach 45 deg C, a heatwave is declared regardless of deviation, and at 47 deg C, it is classified as a severe heatwave. These definitions remain effective for now, though they may need reassessment in the future as climate patterns continue to evolve.

Q: What would you advise farmers?

A: Be aware of the fact that rainfall patterns have changed significantly since the 1980s and 1990s. Today, the same amount of rainfall often occurs over shorter durations, increasing the risk of floods and cloudbursts while also reducing effective water retention. Farmers need to adapt by adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices, improving water management, and diversifying crops. Rather, people in general need to be aware and alert of the changing weather patterns