Has US missile defence failed to protect Gulf nations from Iran’s missile barrage? Seems so

For decades, wealthy Arab states along the Persian Gulf invested billions in American weapons and hosted US bases to deter Iran. Today, despite some of the world’s most advanced missile defence systems, their skies are crowded with interceptors, and still, missiles and drones are getting through.

The latest escalation began after US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials. Washington called Iran’s expanding missile and drone programme “no longer tolerable.” Tehran responded swiftly and ferociously.

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Regional governments say Iran has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles and nearly 1,000 drones in just days. Oil facilities, airports, urban centres, and even hotels have been struck. Airspace closures have stranded thousands. Schools have moved online. Residents in cities long seen as safe are sheltering indoors.

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Ironically, several Gulf governments had urged Washington not to strike Iran. Now their own territories are under fire.

The Gulf is not defenceless. Up to 40,000 US troops are stationed across the region, supported by Patriot missiles and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. The UAE intercepted one of the largest barrages it has ever faced. Qatar deployed Patriots and fighter jets.

But missile defence is not the same as missile immunity.

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Iran has shifted to what officials call a “mosaic defence”, decentralised launch cells using mobile platforms disguised as civilian trucks. Many of the drones are inexpensive and quickly manufactured, some costing as little as USD 20,000. By contrast, interceptor missiles can cost millions.

Even if most incoming projectiles are shot down, saturation tactics can overwhelm systems and strain stockpiles. During last year’s 12-day conflict involving Israel, the US reportedly used up a quarter of its THAAD interceptors.

Iran may be able to sustain pressure for weeks, analysts say, especially with short-range missiles aimed at nearby Gulf states.

The Gulf’s layered shield remains formidable. But as the barrages continue, a harder question is emerging: how long can it hold?