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Islamic Republic

End of Theocracy?

Given Iran's complex and regimented theocratic system, the protests are unlikely to escalate into another Arab Spring. Indeed, democracy and hard-core Islam seem prima facia incompatible, as the failure of the Arab Spring in all countries where it had once ignited the hope of democratic transition amply demonstrates. More so for Iran, wherethose who exercise power are handpicked by the all-powerful Supreme Leader and lack accountability to citizens.

Iran factor

Tehran clearly sees itself as a strong regional force which, in collaboration with Moscow and Beijing, can take on the West both economically and, if required, militarily.

Iranian bomb

Arguably, Iran could reach a point like North Korea did nearly 20 years ago when, in its reckoning, its decision on possessing the ultimate weapon outweighs any further international sanctions.

Hardliners in vanguard

It thus comes about that Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, now the judiciary’s deputy head, will replace Ebrahim Raisi, who takes office in August as President after winning the election on June 18.