At the present juncture of global power shifts, the visit of US Vice President J D Vance and his wife is of high strategic importance to India and South Asian politics. Just measure it up against the backdrop indicating high growth trajectory of US-India partnership marked by the buoyancy of successive highlevel visits in 2025. It began with PM Modi’s official working visit to Washington in mid-February 2025 shortly after Donald Trump’s ascent to presidency.

Then Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard visited New Delhi for a high-profile Raisina dialogue followed by an US delegation led by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Andrew Herrup, and now the visit of Mr. and Mrs Vance. The frequency of these visits underscores the deepening ties between the United States and India, particularly in areas of strategic cooperation and economic partnership. Let us not forget that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has kickstarted tensions in bilateral trade with wider ramifications, under which many Indian sectors from pharma to iron and steel, textiles and precious stones, will henceforth face tariff hikes.

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Amid this growing unease, Vance’s visit is expected to generate optimism and strengthen relations, with discussions likely to focus on key issues such as the trade situation, regional security, and even might include technological collaboration, although the US has some deeper reservations about integrating India into the Western technological architecture which will operate against revisionist powers. However, the exuberance over their engagements comes at a crucial time when both nations are seeking to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, the recent pro-Chinese tilt in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, plus the Myanmar scenario, in all probability make the outcome of these high-level interactions pivotal for shaping future geopolitical dynamics in South Asia.

It deserves mention that the US looks at India neither as a sympathiser of China nor of Iran; even though India is neither an ally like South Korea or any of the NATO member states. As a result, India, albeit a pacifist middle power, is not perceived as an existential threat to the US. India’s unique position allows it to maintain a degree of strategic autonomy while still fostering close rapport with the United States. This delicate balance enables India to pursue its own interests without being fully dictated to, or being opposed to American foreign policy objectives.

As a result, the US-India relationship continues to evolve, characterised by areas of mutual benefit, global vision and occasional divergences on specific issues. Narrowly, the transactionalism translates to the US perception of India increasingly as a bulwark against China’s rise, while India, for its part, has wooed US investment in the thriving Indian market, populated by a more than 432 million-strong middle class. On the other hand, India’s Russia nexus has been a thorn in forging close ties with the US. In particular, India’s insistence on purchasing Russian crude oil despite Western sanctions on the country following its invasion of Ukraine has led to a mistaken view of each other.

Eminent commentators like Paul Kapur have flagged the role of several factors, of which leadership has been a crucial one. This is evident in leveraging the Indo-US partnership through the TrumpModi chemistry. Vance’s tour in India is also seen as laying the ground for Trump’s visit to India later in the year for the summit of leaders of the Quad grouping that includes India, Australia, Japan and the U.S. The timing of Vance’s visit is therefore crucial against the backdrop of the traderelated controversy.

The fact that US-China tensions are ramping up, and that Vance in particular seems to have taken a very highprofile role in American diplomacy, also means that the visit assumes an added layer of significance. Vance is accompanied by U.S. administration officials even though the two sides are unlikely to sign any deals during the visit. India and the U.S. expect to ink a framework for a defence partnership this year, while New Delhi also plan to co-produce arms, including Javelin anti-tank guided missiles and Stryker infantry combat vehicles, according to a joint statement issued after the February meeting. The “China factor” and its recent sabre-rattling in the Taiwan Strait is another factor for both sides. Here, a point to be noted is that many China ‘hawks’ in the Trump administration are India ‘doves’.” India’s unique position allows it to maintain a degree of strategic autonomy while Chinese jingoism could pose a veritable test for India to side with the US in the event of Chinese military intervention in Taiwan. Similarly, another sensitive issue for both sides pertains to concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambition and potential weapons development.

Ongoing diplomatic efforts aim to bring Iran back into compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and prevent further escalation of tensions especially after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The US, along with its European allies, continues to pursue a dual-track approach of sanctions and negotiations to address this critical global security challenge. The Iranian perspective highlights the growing national agreement on India’s policy towards the Middle East. Some Indian public opinion has criticised the strengthening ties between India and Israel, attributing it to the ideological stance of the government in New Delhi.

These criticisms might grow louder during Vance’s visit because the US might use it as diplomatic pressure to bandwagon with Israel’s calls to isolate Iran. Meanwhile the Modi administration aims to retain a bipartisan Middle East policy. A few weeks later, the Prime Minister may visit Syria, a nation strongly disliked by both Israel and the United States.

This type of move once again highlights India’s regional necessities and the importance of engaging with Arab nations while balancing its perceived pro-Israeli stance. So, we can say that Vance’s visit in all probability will help in reaffirming trust, shared interests and goodwill by taking the relations forward. Although clouds of longterm fissures in the bilateral relationship remain, they need to be addressed systematically with deeper astute engagements.

(The writers are, respectively, Professor and Head, Dept. of Political Science, SKB University, Purulia, and Assistant Prof., Dept. of Political Science, Ramananda College, Bishnupur, Bankura)