THE Saffron surge that swept down from the Himalayas through the plains along the Ganga has proved that for the Modi-Shah electoral machine the reverses in Delhi and Bihar were mere aberrations. For the runaway successes in UP and Uttarakhand have more than compensated for the ousting of the Akali-BJP government in Punjab. Clarity on Manipur and Goa was yet to emerge at the time of writing this commentary, and more detailed analysis must await the publication of official results. There, however, can be no denying the effectiveness of the BJP campaign, which could well chart the course for coming assembly elections and the “big one” a little over two years away. While there can be no denying the often divisive nature of the line that Narendra Modi and Amit Shah sold the voter, they obviously did much more than that ~ which paid rich dividends. For in reality the BJP rode piggy-back on their “appeal”, and the strategy of not nominating a chief ministerial candidate “worked”: the voter had no one who attracted their disfavour. Certainly, demonetisation did not hurt the party. Whether UP, Uttarakhand etc can be managed by remote-control remains an open question: faith in Modi might not suffice for good governance.

The Congress’ success in Punjab was again a personal rather than a party win. And the collapse of the Badals was expected, even before the pollsters spelt that out. The Aam Aadmi Party did much bragging but voters in Punjab and Goa were not “swept away”. The Samajwadi took a body blow when the father-son combine of the Yadavs came unstuck. A section of the Samajwadi feels Akhlilesh shot himself in the foot when joining forces with Rahul Gandhi, who they insist was a debilitating dead-weight. The Indian electoral game is “not playing cricket”: if it was the Congress would have replaced its skipper long ago. If another trouncing does not enable it to muster the guts to bite the bullet, the “senior-most” political party will commit hara-kiri. Sheila Dikshit must be extremely happy that she was “by-passed” when Rahul switched horses mid-stream, further proof of him not being in the “big league”. Is the Congress so emaciated that it cannot redeem its fortunes?

The “close calls” in Goa and Manipur could translate into money-power tilting the scales but it is better to wait and watch. For now the BJP is entitled to its high spirits. For while its prospects for 2019 have been floodlit, in the short term it will have an easier time in the Rajya Sabha and the coming Presidential election.