The situation is dire. The abnormal has become the normal. When the Russians invaded Ukraine, war erupted in 2022. It captured the headlines not only in India but across the globe. There was a flurry of outrage in the capitals of major powers, the UN General Assembly was full of anxiety, angry resolutions were passed by the dozen till the UN office ran out of paper. The brutal war continues, three years later. It has now become a routine affair to report hundreds of soldiers killed or injured every week on either side, countless women widowed and children orphaned. Nobody knows, or even cares when this will end and the two nations return to sanity.

It was expected that as the sole surviving super power, the United States would exert pressure on both sides to return to the negotiating table to resolve the dispute. With the recent change in guard at the White House, the expected has happened. But it appears increasingly probable that the victim of aggression, Ukraine may come out weaker, if not the loser. For the first time in the 21st century, Might may turn out to be Right. When the war first broke out, India’s stand was somewhat ambiguous. No doubt, our Prime Minister was categorical that it is ‘an era of peace, not war’. But beyond that, it could possibly not have done much more. Russia is a close friend and partner of long standing, and a major supplier of military hardware to our armed forces.

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Hence, our options were limited even to begin with. We took a pragmatic stand in not joining Western sanctions against Russia, however indefensible on the grounds of morality or fair play, even though thereby going against accepted norms of international law and morality. But in the world of ‘realpolitik’, there are no angels ~ only countries pursuing their self-interest above all. At another level, the stand taken by our Foreign Office has been somewhat myopic. When leading Western democracies and Japan in the G7 grouping of nations were expressing open disappointment at India’s selfserving stand, the impression conveyed to them was that the conflict was between two European powers. It was for Europe to sort out the issue ~ ‘we are not involved in the dispute.’

The tone was almost dismissive, somewhat uncharacteristic of our Foreign Minister, otherwise a very astute and able strategist. But the time is fast approaching when we will have to face the harsh reality that in the event of Ukraine coming out a runner-up, the consequences for India particularly could be grave. If Russia is able to get away with its gains on the battlefield, the sole winner in the conflict could be China. It has all along kept a safe distance from the main zone of conflict. In the meanwhile, it has signed a “no limits” partnership with Russia, and actively supported it with military supplies. It has helped beat Western sanctions by buying up Russian oil when the West applied the import squeeze.

When Russia suffered heavy casualties, apparently it “permitted” the North Koreans to deploy its soldiers alongside the Russian army. It is highly unlikely that the isolated North Koreans, a pariah state declared as such by the UN, could have done so without a wink from China, their sole supporter and benefactor. China is drawing the appropriate lessons from a possible Russian victory. It is already feeling emboldened that in the highly probable scenario of a direct attack on Taiwan, it may have a free hand with virtually no effective opposition from any power in the region or beyond, or a protest from within, even a token one.

Of late, it is working overtime to stifle all chance of any dissent in Hong Kong. Its legislature has been packed with loyal and “politically correct” comrades, all nominated by Beijing. The Press has been effectively muzzled, and the farcical “election” there was stage managed by Beijing. Its solemn agreement with the UK, at the time of Hong Kong’s independence from it in 1997, to enforce ‘One country, Two systems’ has been thrown out of the window. Besides Hong Kong, the other region that could possibly oppose an attack by China on Taiwan is Occupied Tibet. Efforts there are in full force to rule out any murmur of protest or even dissent. The Dalai Lama is very old, and in frail health.

There is talk in Tibet about the successor to the present Dalai Lama who would be chosen by the Buddhist Council in Lhasa, in accordance with the historically hallowed Buddhist tradition. But Beijing has already sent a clear message to the Buddhist Council that the next Dalai Lama will be ‘anointed’ by direct appointment by Beijing. Notice has been served on Tibet to behave, or else. Having taken care of internal sources of possible dissent, it is busy turning its attention towards external powers to silence them, one by one in advance.

Japan is the first in the line of Chinese fire, so to say. It is likely to be most adversely affected in the event of a forcible takeover of Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait, through which passes most of the sea trade between Japan and its major Western partners, including India, will become a Chinese lake. The islands of Senkaku, a Japanese territory north of Taiwan are already on the Chinese radar as its next ‘port of call’ for the Chinese Navy, after the occupation of Taiwan. The world’s largest naval force has served notice, so that Japan cannot even claim to be ‘caught off guard’, literally and figuratively.

The Philippines, north of the Indo Pacific Ocean, is another possible major regional player which could come to Taiwan’s aid. It is likely to be as badly affected as Japan, if not more. It is similarly being taken due care of. Shoals and small islands historically belonging to them are being taken over by the Chinese Navy, disguised as the Coast Guard. The latter are, with unfailing regularity, harassing Filipino Coast Guard patrolling international waters. Not only that, they are openly harassing Coast Guard vessels carrying essential supplies to their own islanders. When the World Court ruled in favour of the Philippines’ claims over these disputed islands, the Chinese refused to honour its verdict. It is not on record if the Court was asked to apologize for having the audacity to rule against the Middle Kingdom.

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)