Balancing ties with America and Russia

Indo-Russia ties have been an enigma for the US. Russia has been a reliable ally for decades as compared to the US, which tilts depending on policies of the current administration. In 2000, India and Russia signed a declaration converting their relationship into a strategic partnership and in 2010 into a ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.’ Trade was low, largely based on military hardware. The scenario changed post the Ukraine war and imposition of sanctions on Russia.

India’s oil procurements from Russia increased since the Ukraine war due to discounts, and reached US $64 billion in 2024-25. President Donald Trump then imposed 25 per cent additional tariffs on India for procuring Russian oil. Last week, in an interview with TV BRICS, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned, “US is trying to ban India and our other partners from buying cheap, affordable Russian energy resources.” Earlier this month Trump said that India had agreed to stop procuring Russian oil, believing it “would help end the war in Ukraine.” Lavrov countered, “No one other than Trump has claimed that India plans to stop buying Russian oil.”

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India may have scaled down procurements, but there are no indicators that these have stopped. Trump targeted India but not China for procuring Russian oil, because Beijing possesses leverage which India lacks, rare earth minerals, essential for the US. Washington is desperately attempting to break this stranglehold. Further, sanctioning China could impact supply chains, resulting in increased inflation in the US. Added is Trump’s belief that President Xi Jinping holds greater sway over Russian President Vladimir Putin than Prime Minister Modi.

Trump could pressure India because the Indian economy remains dependent on Western markets, technology and funding. By inking the Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with the EU and other nations, thereby expanding its markets, India has been able to offset the tariffs imposed by the US. The India-EU FTA caused panic within the Trump administration. The reason is that this deal covers about 25 per cent of global GDP and 30 per cent of the world’s population. It would enable both India and Europe to reduce dependency on the US and China, a fact which worries Washington.

While a possible trade deal with the US has b e en announce d, negotiations for concluding it would still take time. However, an agreement is no guarantee that Trump would adhere to it, as has been the case with South Korea, Canada, and Mexico, where Trump imposed additional tariffs for differing reasons. India therefore must keep alternate options up its sleeve. In addition to tariffs, India has been threatened with CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) for procuring weapon systems from Russia.

India refused to bend on the S-400 missile system and the previous US administration backed down. Presently, the same is again being threatened on possible procurement of SU 57 aircraft. CAATSA could also impact India’s defence procurements from the US. It is already being applied in Algeria. Simultaneously, the US is pushing Ukraine and Russia to ink a peace agreement to end their conflict. On one side, it seeks to partner Russia on peace, draw it away from China, while on the other it attempts to sanction allies of Russia. The target appears to be not just Russia but BRICS, of which India is the rotational President.

The BRICS economy surpasses that of the G7 and is debating use of local currencies instead of the US Dollar in its trade dealings. Washington hopes that by drawing an influential India, it may be able to prevent BRICS from moving ahead on dumping the dollar. India, on its part, has not confirmed Trump’s statements on reducing Russian oil procurements. The MEA mentioned that oil procurements are ‘are driven by national energy security and market conditions rather than geopolitical pressure.’ Speaking at the Munich Security Conference last week, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar mentioned that ‘oil companies in India, Europe and elsewhere make purchasing decisions based on market factors and what best serves their interests.’

India has also not passed any instructions on Russian oil to its oil companies. The US is also pushing India to enhance military purchases from it, which India is doing selectively. It does not seek to become dependent on the US for major military platforms, unless they are manufactured locally with a large domestic content. Dependence on the US could possibly open doors for diplomatic exploitation. Hence, Aatmanirbharta is essential. India’s military ties with Russia remain robust. Despite US pressure, India has turned down offers for F35 aircraft, while still considering domestic production of the Russian SU 57. However other defence deals with the US are ongoing.

Trump did attempt to pressure India to switch sides by imposing tariffs and sanctions and delaying supply of defence equipment. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick even stated that the trade deal was delayed because PM Modi never spoke to Trump. Throughout the phase of diplomatic distancing, dialogue continued on defence cooperation. India also never negatively commented on Trump’s claims of stopping Operation Sindoor or reducing oil procurements. India’s strategic silence, maturity in diplomacy and expanding FTAs with other nations pushed the US to realize that India would not bend. India, unlike European nations, neither accepted nor rejected Trump’s Board of Peace.

It only mentioned that it is ‘carefully assessing’ the invite. The US has understood that India can be wooed but not forced to adhere to its demands. India has been walking the tight rope in its relations with both the US and Russia. It is aware that at some stage Moscow could gravitate towards Washington to gain benefits of US investments and technology by inking deals on minerals and unless India remains in the game it could be left out. When compared to the US, which has begun exploiting its economic power as a tool for geopolitical coercion, Russia has been a steadfast partner and an equal.

Thus, despite levels of pressure from the US, Indo-Russian ties have remained robust. India is unlikely to stop oil procurements from Russia, though it may reduce them, while continuing with its arms procurements, especially since Russia offers favourable terms for manufacture in India. India also cannot ignore its ties with the US as Washington possesses levers to stall defence procurements, impacting vital capabilities, and curtail India’s growth by limiting technology and finance. Those attempting to coerce the government into challenging Washington by accusing it of selling out do not have the nation’s best interests in mind.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)