RLD faces a major crisis in 2027 Assembly elections, may lose more than half its seats

All political parties have begun finalising their preparations and strategies for next year’s Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Sources indicate that Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) national president Jayant Chaudhary may face a significant reduction in his party’s seat share in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, and discussions have already begun within the party in this regard.

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In fact, the RLD, which contested 33 seats in Western Uttar Pradesh in alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) in 2022, may have to be content with less than half the seats this time. According to BJP sources, this issue has now become the central point of discussion in the ongoing seat-sharing talks within the NDA.

In the 2022 Assembly elections, the RLD fielded candidates in 33 seats and won eight. The seats it won include Chhaprauli, Thana Bhawan, Budhana, Siwalkhas, Meerapur, Purkaji (SC), Shamli, and Sadabad.

In this election, the party finished second in 19 seats, third in five, and fourth in Kheragarh. However, 25 of these 33 seats now have BJP MLAs, so the RLD cannot stake a claim to them.

A senior RLD national functionary said, “The party has begun back-channel talks with the BJP to secure a chance in the seats in western UP and Rohilkhand, where the BJP lost to the SP. These include Sardhana, Kithore, Behat, Moradabad Rural, Chharra, Baheri, and Bhojipura. The RLD is also discussing some seats in central and eastern UP.”

Party sources say the RLD does not want to limit itself to its traditional Jat-Gurjar vote bank. It is also trying to reach out to Muslim voters, who have historically voted for the SP or Congress. This will allow the BJP to broaden its social alliance without losing the seats of its current MLAs.

An RLD official explained that the real test for the party will not be the number of seats, but the winning ratio. If the party contests 15 seats and wins 8-10, it will strengthen its standing within the NDA. However, contesting more seats and winning only a few could weaken its bargaining power in the future.

Sources say that the alliance with the RLD is more about social dynamics than seat arithmetic. Keeping the Jat-dominated organisation in Western UP with the NDA helps garner non-Yadav OBC and farmer votes.

However, RLD sources believe that if the RLD’s seats fall significantly, it could increase resentment among influential district-level leaders. Some leaders may turn to the opposition if they are denied tickets. This will limit the party’s independent organisational expansion and make it more dependent on the BJP for political relevance.

Political analysts believe that it remains to be seen how much the RLD will accommodate the NDA’s final seat-sharing arrangement and whether it will be able to maintain its ground strength while adhering to the alliance principles.

RLD state president Ramashish Rai said, “We are in a good position in our strong areas. But to ensure the NDA’s victory, we will adhere to the alliance principles with the BJP.”