Kerala: Campaigning for Nilambur assembly bypoll draws to close

The grand finale of the high-voltage Nilambur assembly bypoll campaign ended on Tuesday evening. In the final hours of the campaign, LDF, UDF and BJP candidates intensified their respective campaigns in Nilambur with road shows at different centres in the constituency.

The grand finale (Kottikalasam) of the campaign was held at different places in the Nilambur town on Tuesday evening. The LDF’s kottikalasam was held at Chettiyangadi Junction, while that of the UDF was held at the Hospital Junction in Nilambur. The BJP held the finale of the public campaigning near Maharani Silks in Nilambur junction.

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CPI-M state secretariat member M Swaraj is the LDF candidate while Congress general secretary Aryadan Shoukath is his key opponent. The BJP has fielded former Kerala Congress leader Mohan George as its nominee in the fray. All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) state convener P V Anvar is contesting as an Independent.The bypoll was necessitated due to the dramatic resignation of Anvar, who left the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) late in 2024.

The bypoll is being seen as an early indicator for next year’s Assembly polls. Welfare pensions, man-animal conflicts and the support extended to UDF candidates by the Welfare party, the political arm of Jamaat-e-Islami and PDP’s support to the LDF candidate has been the hot topics of the campaign. The result of the bypoll is set to be the ‘semifinal’ before the assembly election early next year.

The LDF has pushed its development and welfare record while the Opposition UDF attacked the government over its failure to communicate effectively with protesting ASHA workers and lives lost to human-wildlife encounters.

The Nilambur constituency includes one municipality and seven grama panchayats — Amarambalam, Chungathara, Edakkara, Karulai, Moothedam, Pothukal and Vazhikkadavu. After the constituency was established in 1965, Nilambur had elected the CPI-M in its first Assembly election in 1967. However, Congress wrested the seat in 1970 and held on to it for the next 15 years, before the CPI-M managed to reclaim it in 1982.

The constituency swung back to the UDF in 1987 and went on to become a stronghold of veteran Congress leader Aryadan Muhammed, who held it until 2016. In 2016, PV Anvar, contesting with the backing of the LDF, won the seat and went on to represent Nilambur until his resignation in January 2025. Now, Aryadan Muhammed’s son, Aryadan Shoukath, is attempting to carry forward his father’s legacy by contesting on a Congress ticket

When Priyanka Gandhi Vadra contested the by-poll in the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency – of which Nilambur is part – she managed to secure a margin of over 65,000 votes over her Left rival.

Nilambur is basically a UDF bastion, and more specifically a stronghold of late Aryadan Muhammed. What gives the LDF hope is the chance of PV Anvar splitting the UDF votes and the BJP fielding a former Kerala Congress leader, Mohan George, on its ticket. Mohan George is a representative of the Christian settler-farmers in Nilambur, and the BJP assumes that his candidature will result in the erosion of the Congress vote bank.

With close to 40,000 voters, Christians account for nearly 11% of the electorate in Nilambur. Basically the Christian voters in Nilambur leaned heavily towards the Congress and the UDF, especially during the tenure of former MLA and veteran leader Aryadan Muhammed.

Now, this bypoll comes against the backdrop of growing uneasiness between Christian and Muslim communities in Kerala, a divide that the BJP-led NDA is seeking to exploit. The UDF’s alliance with the Welfare Party has also caused concern among Christian organisations. The Catholic Congress recently issued a pointed statement cautioning the Congress over its choice of allies. Though the Munambam Waqf land dispute was not actively brought as a campaign issue, how the Christian community responds to the issue is a matter of concern for the Congress and UDF.

After the end of the public campaign on Tuesday evening,UDF leaders predicted a thumping victory for their candidate Aryadan Shoukath in the Nilambur byelection, saying that it would be a trial run for the 2026 Assembly elections. Senior Congress leader and Opposition leader in the Kerala Assembly VD Satheesan said that Nilambur would mark the beginning of the UDF juggernaut for the 2026 Assembly elections, and forecasted a solid victory for the UDF with at least a 15,000-vote margin.