India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion by the end of this year, even though the country’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, largely due to economic reasons, according to the UNFPA’s recent report released on Tuesday.

The report revealed that on an average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration.

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The agency investigated the reasons behind these shifting childbearing preferences across 14 countries, home to nearly 37% of the world’s population, to understand the declining fertility trends.

A recent survey, carried out by the UNFPA in partnership with a polling agency, spanning these countries, including India, has shed light on fertility aspirations and challenges. Among over 1,000 Indian adults polled, economic concerns emerged as a significant factor influencing family size. Financial limitations, job insecurity, housing constraints, and inadequate quality childcare options were cited as major reasons for having fewer children.

Beyond economic constraints, the report also highlighted health concerns and anxiety about future safety as other key reasons young Indians are opting for smaller families.

Health concerns, listed in the report, included infertility, barriers to fertility and pregnancy-related medical care, and poor general health or chronic illnesses. Meanwhile, the backdrop of global instability, marked by rising political and social tensions, wars, pandemics, and environmental degradation, has amplified these fears, shaping reproductive choices.

The agency’s analysis of India’s demographic landscape has sparked concerns about a potential decline in population numbers, prompting warnings about the country’s future growth trajectory.

“India is now the world’s most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people – a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins falling, around 40 years from now,” stated the UN report.