State Bank of India (SBI) in its research report has projected India’s GDP growth for Q4 FY25 at around 6.4-6.5 per cent, and for FY25, at 6.3 per cent.

It shared the data, assuming there are no major revisions in Q1 to Q3 estimates in the upcoming data release by the National Statistics Office(NSO).

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The report said that the swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity.

Notably, as per IMF, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026.

For India, the SBI research report said the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in FY25 (6.3 per cent for FY26), supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas.

But this rate is 30 bps lower than the earlier estimate on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty, the report said.

Recently, rating agency ICRA has also said that India’s GDP is set to grow at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal. This undershoots the NSO estimates made in February.

ICRA in its note projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY 2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter.

In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively.