More than one in two senior business executives globally (59 per cent) believe there will be a recession in the coming year, according to an IDC survey.
Moreover, nearly 30 per cent of those who believe a recession will occur also believe that we are currently in a recession, with another 26 per cent expecting a recession to begin in the second half of 2022, according to the survey of almost 900 C-Suite level executives.
Nearly 44 per cent of Asia/Pacific respondents believe the recession will begin in the second half of 2022.
“Given the many factors contributing to slower growth – persistent inflation, rising interest rates, ongoing supply chain issues, a potential energy crisis in Europe, and the conflict in Ukraine – it’s not surprising that the majority of executives believe a recession is imminent,” said Tony Olvet, group vice president, Worldwide C-Suite and Canadian Future Enterprise Research at IDC.
CEOs in particular need to guide their organisations through periods of economic slowdown without losing sight of long-term growth objectives, and for the vast majority of CEOs that requires a digital-first strategy, he added.
While the majority of executives in each of the geographic regions surveyed felt that a recession is likely in the next 12 months, the strongest response came from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) where nearly three quarters of C-suite respondents expect a recession in the coming year.
However, a similar share of EMEA executives believe the recession won’t begin until the first half of 2023.
In comparison, nearly half of North American respondents believe we are already in a recession.
In terms of duration, two thirds of the respondents overall believe the recession will last one year or longer.
Despite their expectations of a recession, more than one third of the survey respondents overall predicted that they will increase their IT budgets during this time.
“In today’s macroeconomic environment, there are indicators of slow growth and sentiments from business executives that express concern for a potential recession. No one can confidently predict the future, but everyone can learn from the past,” said Teodora Siman, research manager, C-Suite Tech Agenda at IDC.
Investing in technology before an economic downturn can help uncover inefficiencies in processes and increase business agility, preparing an organisation to handle new risks in the market, Siman added.