Tariff upon Tariff

The writing on the wall is in bold letters and clear. It can leave no one in doubt or confusion. The freedom and independence of Taiwan, a robust democracy is doomed to end, sooner or later. The unprovoked invasion will happen, and the fire-breathing Dragon will engulf it in fire and fury. The world’s largest naval force is singing ‘Taiwan Ahoy’ in commanded unison under the world’s most ruthless Communist regime. Of course, as the world knows all too well, the stark warning is engraved on the Great Wall of China, so to say. Somewhat uncharacteristically, the Chinese Communist party has repeatedly proclaimed its intent loud and clear.

If the Taiwanese do not submit to the Communist diktat, it will be unified with the Motherland, politically termed Mainland, by force. As if to buttress its open threats, China regularly sends its air and naval patrols to coerce a nation state that is a thriving economy and an open society under the rule of law. It is in this context that the raging endless conflict in Ukraine and the possibility of its surrender are critical for India’s future. Either way, whether the war ends in favour of Russia or Ukraine, there is only one clear winner in sight ~ China. For Russia has suffered economically and militarily, with huge losses in men and weaponry. And Ukraine is devastated. China, by indirectly aiding the mighty Russian war machine has aided the growing apprehension that for all the progress that mankind has made, might is still right.

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Big fish can gobble up the small fish with impunity. As is said, there are none so blind as those who would not see. Viewed in the context, the punitive tariffs imposed on India for continuing to purchase Russian oil, in violation of strict Western sanctions, becomes urgently relevant. A narrative is doing the rounds across India that the high tariffs are punitive. It is a myopic view. A closer study of the repercussions of Ukraine “losing” the war with Russia shows this will only embolden China to gobble up Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait will turn into a Chinese lake, and India’s growing maritime trade with its East Asian neighbours, primarily Japan and South Korea, will be affected. Our merchandise, which has to pass through the Taiwan Strait will be subject to whatever toll the Chinese may impose in future. In a manner of speaking, what President Trump is doing is what India should be doing on its own, without any external prodding, to ensure that Ukraine is not abandoned to its fate by the USA and its Western “friends”.

To be doing otherwise would be to indirectly enshrine a novel dictum in international relations that small, independent democracies will henceforth be at the tender mercy of big autocracies that will increasingly determine the future globally in their own image. In China’s case, the old Middle Kingdom will dominate Asia, specifically the Indo-Pacific ocean countries. History threatens to repeat itself, this time as a predictable and an unending tragedy. Admittedly, the situation is complicated by the Russia factor. And again admittedly, Russia is a friend of India, with close historical ties. It has stood by India throughout the Cold War era.

It has been a major supplier of military hardware to India, and continues to be so even though India has very wisely diversified its arms sources from the West, notably France and USA. Looking to the existential Chinese threat, we have no option but to continue to do so and maintain and develop cordial strategic relations with the major Western democracies that are our arms suppliers. To recall the 1962 national fiasco with China, the Soviet Union had to face a difficult choice between “friendly” India and “fraternal” China. A very crucial challenge lies ahead for Indian diplomacy. It has to convince Russian friends that India cannot just abandon Ukraine. Unfortunately, the perception prevailing today in our foreign policy establishment is that Ukraine is somehow a ‘European problem’.

It may turn out to be seriously myopic in the long run. Whether we like it or not, China is an existential threat to its southern neighbouring democracy, the world’s largest and fastest growing. China has no cause to celebrate our example being now set before smaller Asian countries to emulate our democratic model. The Global South is still struggling between nascent democracy and the supposedly more “efficient” Command economy. It goes to the credit of the Indian foreign policy establishment that it has worked out a security framework in the form of QUAD to checkmate any Chinese adventurism in the Indo-Pacific.

The point also needs to be noted that all QUAD members are robust, long established democracies ~ USA, Japan and Australia, besides India. But unlike NATO, it is not a formal military alliance, headed by the USA. It is somewhat loose, a “partnership” without any binding NATO clause among its members ~ “an attack on any member country will be considered as an attack on all members.” QUAD members are defence partners, not military allies. Amongst QUAD members, India is the weakest link, sharing a 3,500 long border with its Communist neighbour. USA as the leader is simultaneously a military leader with its European NATO allies and Canada. And Japan and Australia are bilateral military allies of USA outside of QUAD too. Japan has a military treaty with USA under which several US Army divisions are stationed there.

Australia is a Naval ally of US and UK. It is also a nuclear partner with the USA in the Indo-Pacific. India thus is most vulnerable to any Chinese adventurism in the case of an attack on Taiwan. It may be rendered just a helpless bystander. The other three QUAD members are fully alive to the looming Chinese threat, even at a distance. For the first time since the end of World War II, both Australia and Japan have recently held joint major military exercises with USA, using live ammunition.

Taking advantage of weak Indian diplomacy, the Chinese Ambassador to India publicly reprimanded the leader of QUAD as a bully, though this was coloured as sympathy for India in its commercial differences with the USA. There was not a murmur of protest from the Indian foreign policy establishment at the unprecedented breach of diplomatic protocol. In sum, the narrative doing the rounds about “punitive tariffs” on Indian exports is unjustified. We in India must remember that it was President Trump who first renamed what was historically termed the US Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command. History may yet judge his strategic foresight as historic.

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)