Russia-Ukraine war completes four years with no immediate end in sight

The Russia-Ukraine war entered its fifth year on Wednesday (today), with no immediate end in sight.

The war has morphed into a gruelling, high-tech war of attrition. Even as both sides have engaged in diplomatic efforts, including talks in Alaska and Geneva, a definitive peace deal remains elusive due to fundamentally incompatible demands and concerns on both sides.

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Russia currently occupies approximately 20 per cent of Ukraine, a figure that has changed by less than one per cent over the past year despite massive casualties. In addition, combined military casualties are estimated to be approaching two million, with Russia reportedly suffering approximately 1.2 million and Ukraine between 500,000 and 600,000. However, in such a war, which has dragged on for four years, the correct number of casualties can never be ascertained. That always remains a guess.

The conflict has become a kind of revolution in military matters, dominated by drone technology, which now accounts for the vast majority of battlefield casualties.

As time goes by, the conflict may engulf the entire region, if not the world. While European leaders have vowed to stand firm with Kyiv, cracks in solidarity are appearing. Recently. Hungary vetoed a 90 billion Euro loan intended for Ukraine’s defence, highlighting the growing difficulty of maintaining a united front.

The global economic strain is likely to grow. The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction for Ukraine at 588 billion USD over the next decade.

Globally, the war continues to drive a shift toward a multipolar world, with companies reshuffling supply chains to favour “friendshoring” in more stable geopolitical blocs.

Some analysts see three primary paths for 2026: 1. A “frozen conflict” where active fighting slows but no peace is signed, 2. A long war with periodic escalations, and 3. A fragile negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine at risk of future invasion.

Drones and now satellites…the four-year conflict has seen the involvement of high-tech equipment. The US-based ‘Institute for the Study of War’ (ISW) said that in 2025, Ukraine’s military intelligence indicated that Starlink terminals were being mounted on top of the drones by Russian forces to transmit video signals and provide real-time guidance. That practice meant the drones could be controlled remotely by pilots far from the targets; it also gave the unmanned aerial vehicles a range limited only by battery life and not the extent of their radio signal.

The situation changed earlier this month, after Ukraine’s Defence Minister reached out to SpaceX. SpaceX later said it had stopped the “unauthorised use” of Starlink by Russian forces in Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said SpaceX responded quickly after it warned that Russia was using its technology “to terrorise the civilian population of Ukraine,” ISW said.

Russia, which calls it a ‘’Special Military Operation’’, said on Tuesday that the ‘’Special Military Operation is aimed at eliminating threats emanating from territories controlled by the Kyiv regime, and at ensuring the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine. All actions are being carried out in strict accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, which governs the right of individual and collective self-defence.’’

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement (today) that in carrying out the objectives of the ‘’Special Military Operation,’’ the Russian Armed Forces are making an invaluable contribution to strengthening regional and international stability.

‘’Our country is actively engaged in dialogue with all interested partners on the creation of a system of equal and indivisible Eurasian security. We are convinced that the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, taking into account Russia’s legitimate interests, will contribute to this goal. All objectives of the special military operation will be achieved.’’

The Foreign Ministry said a lasting, just and sustainable peace is possible only on the basis of eliminating the root causes of the conflict. ‘’It is precisely to this task that the current efforts of our diplomacy are directed, including in contacts with countries of the Global Majority and within the framework of the Russian-US dialogue.’’

It said Russia’s proposals to provide legally binding security guarantees, including the non-expansion of NATO eastwards and the return of its military infrastructure to the 1997 configuration (that is, at the time of the signing of the Russia-NATO Founding Act), were ignored.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement today that ‘’there is no Russian weapon that we have not learned to destroy, and we will overcome this ideological weapon of theirs as well – sanctions are one of the instruments.

He said ‘’a new decision has been made regarding sanctions against 29 Russian entities and 15 Russian organisations and bodies of the so-called occupation administrations. They support Russian aggression and the occupation of Ukrainian territories, spread Russian propaganda, distort history and facts, and steal our documents from archives, as well as cultural treasures from museums and reserves on the temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula. We are also working to synchronise sanctions across international jurisdictions. All relevant information will be shared with our partners for further action.’’

If the war continues, India will have to do a balancing act, especially when the economic benefits of discounted energy supplies clash with intensifying Western sanctions and shifting geopolitical risks.

While India became a major buyer of Russian oil early in the conflict, future energy strategies mark a turning point. As of February 2026, Saudi Arabia has reclaimed the top spot as India’s largest oil supplier and Russian oil imports have fallen from mid-2025 peaks of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 800,000—1,000,000 bpd.

New sanctions, including a reported ban on oil products made from Russian crude, have forced major Indian refineries to maintain access to Western markets.

Continued volatility in global crude prices remains a primary driver of domestic inflation. India remains heavily dependent on Russian-origin equipment. The prolonged war can hamper the delivery of spare parts and advanced systems, as Russia will have to prioritise its own frontline.

The US pressure on India in the form of Tariffs can further hurt the Indian economy.

The underlying principle is that in an increasingly interdependent world, any crisis or conflict in one corner can have repercussions in another corner.