A US think tank says Iran’s missile systems face serious operational issues, with strikes impacting morale, stockpiles, and long-term defence production capacity.
Smoke rises from damaged infrastructure after drone strike in Gulf region amid US-Israel-Iran war
A large portion of Iran’s ballistic missile systems may no longer be capable of carrying out their intended missions, a US-based think tank has said, even though about half of the launch platforms are still physically undamaged.
The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest report that recent intelligence suggests around 50 per cent of Iranian missile launchers remain intact. However, being intact does not mean they are effective, as many are unable to perform operational tasks.
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Iran has relied on drones and missiles in recent weeks to target Israeli infrastructure and US-linked assets across West Asia, as tensions in the region continue to rise.
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The report highlights that Iran’s medium-range ballistic missile capability has “significantly degraded”, with fewer such missiles being fired over time. Short-range missiles, however, continue to be used more regularly, though their overall status remains uncertain.
The think tank said it is difficult to assess the full extent of Iran’s missile strength because of unclear details about the types of launchers and whether systems are interchangeable between missile categories.
It also noted that joint US-Israeli strikes since February 28 have affected the operational environment for Iranian forces.
According to the assessment, these attacks may have created fear within the ranks, leading to reduced missile activity after March 20.
Quoting US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, the report said recent airstrikes have weakened morale within Iran’s military, contributing to desertions, manpower shortages, and dissatisfaction among senior officials.
There are also indications that Iran is facing challenges in maintaining troop strength, with recruitment and retention emerging as concerns.
The report further said that repeated strikes on Iran’s defence production facilities have affected its ability to replenish missile and drone stockpiles. While Iran is believed to still possess an unknown number of weapons, its capacity to rebuild over time is likely to be limited.
It added that a significant share of these stockpiles has already been used in attacks targeting Israel and countries in the Gulf region since the conflict began.
“The US-Israeli campaign has solidified the operational success generated by rendering launchers combat ineffective and destroying missile stockpiles by targeting Iran’s defence industrial base extensively. Strikes on these sites will make it more challenging for Iran to reconstitute its missile and drone program over the long-term. Iran retains an unclear number of missiles and drones in its stockpiles, but ongoing strikes on Iranian defence industrial sites degrade Iran’s ability to rebuild these stockpiles. Iran has also used a sizable portion of its weapons stockpiles in attacks on Israel and the Gulf since the war began,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, Iranian and allied forces have stepped up their response. According to state broadcaster Press TV, Tehran launched what it called “Wave 93” under “Operation True Promise 4”, targeting Israeli military locations on Friday.
The strikes were described as part of a continuing retaliatory campaign led by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.
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