A security assessment by Tsinghua University’s International Security and Strategy Center identifies Taiwan, Japan, US technology restrictions and South China Sea tensions among the biggest external challenges China expects to face in 2026.
A report by Tsinghua University's International Security and Strategy Center ranks Taiwan, Japan and US technology restrictions among China's biggest external security concerns for 2026. | Photo: IANS
Beijing spends a lot of time preparing for wars, trade battles and geopolitical crises. But what exactly keeps China’s leadership awake at night?
A new report by the International Security and Strategy Center at Beijing’s Tsinghua University offers a rare glimpse into that thinking. The annual assessment lists the 10 biggest external threats China expects to face in 2026.
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From Taiwan and Japan to AI-powered cyberattacks and supply chain wars, here’s what made the list.
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1. Taiwan remains China’s biggest worry
No surprises here.
The report says Taiwan is still China’s top external security concern. Beijing fears rising support for Taiwanese independence, continued US arms sales to Taipei and Japan becoming more involved in Taiwan-related security matters.
The report also warns that an unexpected event, such as a major cyberattack or a high-profile visit by a European leader to Taiwan, could sharply raise tensions.
2. Japan is no longer just a difficult neighbour
The report says relations with Japan have deteriorated to a point where disagreements are becoming structural rather than temporary.
Chinese researchers are particularly concerned about Japan’s expanding military presence, closer defence cooperation with the United States and developments around the disputed islands in the East China Sea.
3. The US-China technology battle is getting bigger
China believes Washington is trying to reduce its dependence on Chinese technology and supply chains.
The report says restrictions on advanced technology, semiconductors and rare earth supply chains could become an even bigger challenge over the next year.
4. The South China Sea could become more volatile
China also expects the South China Sea to remain a major flashpoint. The report says even a minor incident involving Chinese and Philippine vessels could spiral into a much bigger confrontation.
5. Global economic shocks worry Beijing
China is also preparing for possible economic turbulence.
The report says fresh tariffs, commodity price swings and global financial instability could affect Chinese exports and economic growth.
6. The Russia-Ukraine war could change China’s strategic position
Even though the war is taking place thousands of kilometres away, Beijing believes its outcome could reshape global geopolitics.
Whether the conflict ends or intensifies, China expects it to influence its relations with Russia, Europe and the United States.
7. Europe is becoming more cautious about China
The report says several European countries are trying to reduce their dependence on China in sectors such as technology, energy and critical raw materials.
Beijing sees this trend as another long-term challenge.
8. AI-powered cyberattacks are emerging as a new threat
China believes artifical intelligence could make cyberattacks harder to stop. The report warns that attacks on critical infrastructure could become one of the country’s biggest security challenges in the years ahead.
9. Chinese investments overseas are under pressure
The report says terrorism and political instability in countries hosting Chinese projects could threaten Beijing’s overseas investments, particularly those linked to the Belt and Road Initiative.
10. North Korea remains an unpredictable neighbour
The final concern is North Korea.
The report says an unexpected missile launch, nuclear test or political crisis on the Korean Peninsula could rapidly change the security situation in East Asia.
What’s interesting is what didn’t make the top of the list.
The report barely focuses on traditional military conflict alone. Instead, it shows that China is equally worried about technology, supply chains, cyber threats, trade, energy security and geopolitical uncertainty.
In other words, Beijing believes tomorrow’s biggest security challenges may not always begin on the battlefield.
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