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Ukraine Russia War

Strategic lessons from the Ukraine conflict

Global support to the weaker nation can be expected mainly to stem and embarrass the adversary, rather than on ideology. Direct involvement by allies or even partners would be unlikely as it could expand the conflict drawing them in, implying proxy wars are possibly the new future. In such scenarios, chances of early peace are unlikely.

The Ticking Clock

Arms manufacturers, the world over, are in clover. A year-long high intensity war, which shows no signs of ending, has sent the profits of arms manufacturers soaring to stratospheric levels. Plus, there has been the unexpected bonanza of testing hardware in live battlefield conditions. Oil companies have recorded windfall profits. The US has benefited by capturing the energy market in Europe from the Russians. Mercenaries, like the Wagner group are rolling in money by supplying convicts and other cannon fodder to the warring countries 

New world order

Unipolarity has run its course and the lesson of the Ukrainian war is the inevitable movement towards multipolarity. The increased military assistance to Ukraine will only prolong that country’s agony just as it was in the case of Vietnam in the 1960s and 70s. A new world order is emerging with new centres of power. The war in Ukraine will accelerate this irreversible process 

The war in Ukraine must end, forthwith

The war has resulted in high inflation, higher energy prices, less money with households and higher interest rates. The IMF director general feels that 2023 would be economically far worse.

Ukraine peace efforts deserve a fair chance

Most countries, particularly developing and poorer countries, want peace to return immediately to this troubled region, both because they recognize the wider dangers of conflict escalation and also because they are already suffering from this conflict in various ways.

Brace for turmoil

The impact of the Russian military’s withdrawal from Kherson City and the west bank of the Dnipro River in Ukraine earlier this month following humiliating setbacks on the battlefield has resulted in analysts rushing to rethink their projections of the endgame in the stand-off between the West and Russia.