Magic formula waning?

Akey lesson learnt from the Jharkhand Assembly election verdict is that the BJP cannot bank on the Modi-Shah charisma alone to help it retain or win states. After its stupendous performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when the BJP-AJSU alliance won 12 of the 14 seats in the state, its showing in the Assembly poll is underwhelming, to say the least.

The defeat can be attributed to local factors and the unpopularity of the non-tribal chief minister. But the overall national mood including the unease over citizenship and the stagnant economy too would have played a part. The signs were there for everyone to see quite early on but instead of course correction, the saffron party thought its twin trump cards, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, would see it through.

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Between them, the Prime Minister and Home Minister addressed 19 rallies in Jharkhand and spoke on a host of national issues such as triple talaq, Article 370, Ram temple in Ayodhya and the Citizenship Amendment Act. The PM’s sharp attack on those who opposed the CAA, saying they can be identified by their clothes as well as Shah’s promise that construction of a Ram temple that would touch the skies would begin in four months obviously found no resonance with the electorate of a state that was in the news recently for hunger deaths.

Another crucial factor for voter dissatisfaction in the predominantly tribal state was the slow implementation of the Forests Rights Act. After below par performances by the BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana, the Jharkhand verdict is renewed evidence of voter fatigue with divisive issues. The BJP gambling on consolidation of non-tribal votes in its favour did not pay off as the Opposition JMMCongress- RJD alliance came up trumps in both tribal and non-tribal areas.

Infighting in the local BJP unit seems to have been overlooked by the party bosses, confident that the Modi magic would help them pull through. The leadership has been quick to deflect the blame on the local unit and the failure to stitch up an alliance with its old ally, AJSU. However, the BJP seems to be repeating the mistake that has proved to be the bane of the Congress – over centralisation.

If every decision is taken by the party high command, there is no scope for state leaders to flourish. The Congress won Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan only because there were strong leaders in the states. The BJP too must learn to decentralise and empower its state leaders. Parachuting party leaders from Delhi to decide on the nitty gritty of ticket distribution and failure to listen to local voices has proved costly for the BJP. After its stunning victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, its footprint across the country is shrinking as the party’s magic formula seems to be on the wane.