Two other major powers in the Indo-Pacific are Australia and New Zealand. The Chinese navy has been lately paying “courtesy visits” to the Tasman Sea that separates the two nations, both being established democracies firmly in the Western bloc. Some ‘courtesy’ indeed! Besides, of late, the Chinese navy has been holding joint sea drills with the Russian navy, the first-ever such drills by the two nations since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As Russia does not have any ally or strategic partner in the Pacific, the message evidently is to intimidate these two nations to look the other side in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese are regularly crossing the virtual median line ‘border’ with impunity, which is midway in the Taiwan Strait. South Korea is another democracy in the region that would be affected by the Chinese occupation of Taiwan and the conversion of the Taiwan Strait into a Chinese lake.

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The Chinese have long tied them up with their recalcitrant neighbour to the North by encouraging the latter, in reality a Chinese satellite, to keep the pot boiling. Periodic testing of nuclear-capable weapons by the North Koreans has been keeping the South Koreans on the edge for years. They may simply not have the stomach to fight on behalf of the independence of Taiwan or commit boots on the ground to come to the aid of hapless Taiwanese people in the event of an unprovoked attack, a la Ukraine.

This leaves only two major powers that can possibly come to the aid of Taiwan ~ US and India ~ both members of QUAD. The US is already half-committed to the aid of Taiwan but only to provide military assistance and hardware to them. No American boots on the ground though. This is so by US law, enacted by the US Congress in a rare show of bipartisan support to come to the aid of Taiwan. In the case of the US, there are historical reasons. The US has staunch military allies in East Asia of long standing, which are equally interested in “freedom of navigation” in the Indo-Pacific waters ~ Philippines, South Korea, Japan and Australia. It has already deployed boots on the ground there.

Hence, these US allies, minus Taiwan, are relatively more secure. In the case of Taiwan too, historically, there are even stronger reasons for American boots to be deployed on the ground there. Soon after Mao took over in Beijing in 1949, he nurtured grand ambitions of restoring the Imperial glory of the Middle Kingdom. He egged on his comrades in North Korea to attack the South. To take advantage of the ongoing Korean War, he had planned to forcibly take over Formosa, as Taiwan was known earlier. Fortunately for democracy in Asia, the then US president, Harry Truman was wisely advised by his military planners to move the US 7th fleet to the Taiwan Strait and to caution Mao.

The Communists in Beijing got the message. Further Communist adventurism in Asia was firmly checked by the US. Mao may be long dead but Maoism is alive and kicking, literally and figuratively. Mao’s equally sinister successors are still nurturing the same old Imperial ambitions. But this time, the situation in the Indo-Pacific is different. US military allies in the region are much stronger, and India is no pushover, post-1962. Taiwan is well armed, and its defences are more secure. But China is now a nuclear power, and equipped with the largest naval force in the world.

The implication is obvious, that the next challenge for the Chinese is the control of the surrounding ocean, for all their paper protestations about “rule based right of orderly navigation” in the Indian Ocean. Lest it be overlooked, the last Defence Minister of China was its Chief of Naval Staff! The fact that the Chinese are casting covetous eyes on Taiwan Strait is based on economic reasons and, ironically, the success of the ‘command economy’.

This has led to the adoption of the historic British Naval doctrine, ‘he who controls the waters controls the trade, and he who controls the trade controls the country.’ To sustain their growing economy, and to keep the 1.4 billion people in politically good humour, the Communists need larger and larger imports of oil and raw materials, besides food. The Taiwan Strait is a key waterway.

One never knows, they may even eye the Malacca Strait one day, given their propensity for military adventurism. Tibet was occupied by Mao soon after the takeover in Beijing. It contains the world’s largest ‘permafrost’ ~ a running fresh water tap of rivers flowing to nine Asian economies, including India, so to say. India owes a debt of gratitude to President Trump for his best New Year gift to us for 2025. He has brought to light a little known fact that just may turn out to have a great bearing on long-term security in the Asian region, as also for India, that a Chinese “Company” is managing the operations of faraway Panama Canal, an artificial ‘strait’.

Regional US allies in general, and India in particular have every reason to wish that America reclaims the waterway as soon as possible. It is not on record if the affiliation, if any, of the Chinese “civilian Company” to its Navy is known even to the Panama authorities. In any case, ‘management and control’ of waterways will always be of use to littoral states, in times of peace, more so in times of conflict. To revert, the result of the Ukraine-Russia war may be of much greater consequence for India than our strategists in the Foreign Office can imagine. If Ukraine is pressured to end the unjust war as a runner up, China will be further emboldened to crush Taiwan, and hold an unchecked sway over the waters of the Indo-Pacific. Besides, there may be indirect consequences for India. We have two landlocked neighbours in Asia, Nepal and Bhutan. They are majorly dep – en dent on sea trade for economic survival.

They are also watching to see the ‘balance of power’ in the Indo-Pacific. Should they conclude that, “when all the tumult and the shouting dies”, Might is Right in the nuclear age, the scales may well tilt against India. In sum, it would be in India’s long term interest to be engaged continuously with the US, the sole superpower that can influence the outcome of the Ukraine war to ensure that the Free World does not abandon Ukraine to its fate. At present, the US is headed by a President who is remarkably prescient ~ that China, if not contained, will be the real long-term threat to world peace.

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)