Imran Khan stated in the US towards the end of his visit, “Until we came into power, the governments did not have the political will, because when you talk about militant groups, we still have about 30,000-40,000 armed people who have been trained and fought in some part of Afghanistan or Kashmir.” He attempted to say that his government is acting on terror groups but has made little headway. Nations latched on to this statement as an admission that Pakistan continues to support terrorism as an instrument of state policy. His visit to the US was prior to the announcement on abrogation of Article 370.

The announcement hit Pakistan like a bolt of lightning. It had no answer and desperately ran helterskelter seeking support. It realized that with one stroke, India had changed the narrative on Kashmir. Realising that it was losing control of the Kashmir situation, Pakistan began to resort to drastic actions. Officially it has announced diplomacy as its instrument, but actually it has chosen riskier options. This became evident from discussions on Pakistani TV channels, intelligence inputs and comments and tweets by Imran Khan.

Pakistan is adopting a multipronged strategy to regain the initiative in Kashmir. Initially it is attempting to employ social media to incite Kashmiris into a public uprising in the valley, which has till date been stymied by Indian curbs on the internet. Thus, as the valley remains peaceful with limited protests, Pakistan realises this approach is not working. The second was to write/speak to every international agency and government, seeking support in compelling India to back down and revert its decision. This has also achieved no success, as India stuck to its stand of it being an internal matter. Those who have objected remain non-entities.

Even those whom Pakistan considered close refused to support its move. The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) issued a statement, which India ignored; however, its members individually have either supported India or issued their own statement mentioning Kashmir remains bilateral. China gave limited backing. Apart from a closed-door discussion in the UNSC, China maintains silence, worried about India’s comments on growing violence in Hong Kong. China would prefer Indian silence. Trump’s offer to mediate has little value as India opposes it. Pakistan’s attempts to twist comments by international leaders is solely for domestic consumption.

With every option failing, the only one left is to reignite terrorism in the valley by inducting Afghan terrorists or locals from POK, thereby claiming their non-involvement. This is risky as threat of FATF blacklisting looms large. To facilitate this option, it organised a meeting in Bahawalpur on 20/21 Aug attended by Mufti Rauf Asgar, brother of JeM chief Masood Azhar. As per inputs Asgar has given instructions to launch pad commanders to push infiltrators into India.

The possibility of this action seems to have Pakistani national support. In a recent television interview, three former High Commissioners to India stated that jihad, if launched in Kashmir, is legal and justified. In their opinion, the decision taken by the Indian government justifies jihad. The former Pakistan army chief, Mirza Aslam Beg, stated in a television interview that jihad was the ‘only way to teach India a lesson.’ He added, “Pakistan army and the government should create trouble for India through Khalistan movement.” He was the army chief between 1988 to 1991, when militancy rose to high levels in the valley. To forestall Pakistan being accused of terrorist strikes on Indian soil, Imran Khan tweeted, “I want to warn the international community that the Indian leadership will in all probability attempt a false flag operation to divert attention from Kashmir.” He added, “Indian media reports of Afghan terrorists entering Kashmir” and said “these claims are predictable.” He sought to distance Pakistan from Indian allegations of reviving terrorism.

Intelligence inputs state that upto 100 Pakistan-trained terrorists, including Afghans, are set to infiltrate and strike in cities within the country. Pakistan has even deployed its Special Services Group personnel in small batches along the Keran and Poonch sectors of J and K. The Pakistan deep state appears to be gravitating towards reviving terrorism in the valley.

These terrorists may also be tasked to attack civilian population in the valley enabling Pakistan to blame Indian forces and projecting it as genocide. Such an action could also anger local Kashmiris leading to internal violence, which could also be blamed on India. To safeguard itself from an Indian counter strike, post such an action, Imran has begun conveying on twitter that this could be false flagged by India and Pakistan termed the initiator.

Imran has regularly stated that while Pakistan desires no conflict, India could push it into one, which could then lead to a nuclear war. He is attempting to push responsibility on India, expecting world leaders to be naïve enough to fall for such naivete. In case of any such strike, to enhance pressure on India, Pakistan would immediately begin moving forces from its western borders towards the LoC.

In preparation for this stage, it has enhanced army deployment in Baluchistan and begun destroying villages and arresting innocents. Reports state that troops along with helicopter gunships are operating in multiple regions of the state resorting to extrajudicial killings. It fears that in case of a conflict with India, Baluch freedom fighters may declare independence. It has blocked internet services in Baluchistan, while demonising India for doing this in Kashmir. Simultaneously, it has announced a month’s curfew in North Waziristan to curtail Pashtun Tahafuz Movement’s activities, while accusing India for the same.

The intention remains to subdue troubled areas prior to Indian military threat increasing. Pakistan’s strategy is evident. Having failed diplomatically and in inciting violence in Kashmir, it is resorting to reigniting terrorism expecting an Indian backlash, for which it needs to be prepared. It hopes world leaders would be naïve and consider Pakistan as a victim rather than aggressor. It should be aware that India would respond forcefully ignoring its nuclear card and world criticism. The ball remains in Pakistan’s court.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.