The outcome of the Israeli election ~ the third in 12 months ~ has exposed the fragility of the embattled country. With Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party two seats short of majority till Wednesday afternoon, it is poised to be the largest single party in a fractured polity. Much as he imagines that “we have turned lemons into lemonade” in the wake of predictions of defeat, a degree of instability in governance is very probable as he begins coalition talks.

He is acutely aware that he may yet be short of the vital seats for a majority coalition. Two short of a 61-seat parliamentary majority, he may yet be able to cobble an administration by wooing rival politicians to join him. While full results will not be released until next week, the 70-year-old leader has already gathered allies, including far-right nationalists and Jewish religious party chiefs, in Jerusalem to discuss a plan of action to break the deadlock. The outlook is fogbound as it is far from clear as to who the Likud will be able to convince to defect from the Opposition.

Under Israeli law, Netanyahu will have 28 days to do so or risk the process collapsing, leading to the possibility of a fourth election later this year. Which will surpass the record of Theresa May and Boris Johnson. His main opponent, the retired general Benny Gantz and his Blue and White party, has won 32 seats. Democracy is at a discount in a chronically sensitive swathe of the world, and this must be the distressing signal from Tel-Aviv. For all that, the result this time is the best for Likud considering all three elections.

By any reckoning, it has been a stunning turnaround for a man who will face trial in a criminal case in two weeks’ time. By all accounts, Mr Netanyahu as Prime Minister-to-be is scheduled to appear in a Jerusalem court on 17 March on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three major cases. Politicians representing the country’s sizeable Arab minority appeared to be set for significant gains, possibly their best-ever performance. The Joint List alliance had called on the electorate to vote for it as a protest against Netanyahu’s racist campaigns.

Early counts showed the party had up to 15 seats, making it the third largest bloc in the Knesset by a clear margin. It has ruled out joining a government led by Netanyahu, however. Israel has been in an extended state of political crisis for almost 12 months after two previous general elections failed to produce a clear winner.

To end the stalemate, Netanyahu had sought to beef up his hardline nationalist base with promises of land grabs from Palestinians. The Palestinians may now be enjoying a quiet chuckle not the least because of Benjamin Netanyahu’s unconvincing performance and the convincing gains of the minority Arabs.