The third ABP News-CVoter Battle for the States Tracker predicts closely-fought victories for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand, the four states which along with Punjab will go to the polls early next year.
The tracker suggests that Punjab is heading towards a hung Assembly with no party being able to cross the majority mark. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) remains in the leading position, followed by the incumbent Congress.
As per the opinion poll, in Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav remain the two leading candidates for the CM’s post.
As per the latest figures, BJP is retaining the state with 212-224 out of 403 seats, followed by SP with 151-163 seats, with the Bahujan Samaj Party a distant third with 12-24 seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP is in pole position with 40.4 per cent votes, followed by SP at 33.6 per cent and the BSP at 13.2 per cent.
In Punjab, the repeal of farm laws and suspension of protests by the farmers promise to make an exciting finale to the elections. This month’s Tracker puts AAP in the lead, maintaining its earlier position with 50-56 seats. The incumbent Congress is second with 39-45 seats, followed by SAD with 17-23 seats.
In terms of vote share, AAP is leading with 38.4 per cent votes, followed by Congress at 34.1 per cent and SAD at 20.4 per cent.
In Uttarakhand, BJP is consistently maintaining its lead position with 33-39 seats and is set to retain power in the state. The Congress is a close second with 29-35 seats, followed by AAP in a distant third with 1-3 seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP is leading the way with 39.8 per cent votes, followed by Congress at 35.7 per cent, and AAP 12.6 per cent.
In Goa, BJP continues to remain the most popular party as it is winning 17-21 seats. AAP and Congress are in a tight battle for the second spot with AAP winning 5-9 seats and Congress winning 4-8 seats. Other regional parties and new entrants in Goa politics are also going to be major factors, winning 6-10 seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP is leading with 30 per cent votes, followed by others at 25.9 per cent and AAP and Congress at 24.4 per cent and 19.7 per cent, respectively.
In Manipur, BJP is set to win a closely-fought contest against Congress. The saffron party is winning 29-33 seats, while Congress is winning 23-27 seats.
In terms of vote share, BJP will get 37.9 per cent votes, followed by Congress at 34.3 per cent.
The current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted between November 13 and December 9, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.
As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ persons across five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa). It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5 per cent and may not necessarily have factored in all the criteria.