The Vijay factor — who stands to benefit in Tamil Nadu assembly polls

With just a few weeks to go for the crucial Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party — the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) — suffered a political setback when party leader Ranjana Nachiyar resigned to join the rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), accusing Vijay of “disrespecting women”.

The latest development adds to the list of multiple political and legal setbacks that Vijay has suffered since his political debut along with increased scrutiny over personal matters as well.

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With the TVK aiming to emerge as an alternative force to challenge the duopoly of the DMK and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu politics, Ranajan’s crossover can be a setback for Vijay. The actor-politician is contesting all the 234 Assembly constituencies in the upcoming elections, and has also declined an offer that included the chief minister’s post along with 50 per cent of Assembly seats, according to TVK leaders, though no party was named as the source of the offer.

Making its electoral debut, the TVK is contesting with the stated aim of forming a government based on “secular and social justice” principles. Sources say Vijay declined offers of alliances to maintain the TVK as a “people’s team,” not subservient to any established political power.

Basically, Vijay is trying to project the TVK as a party that is different from national and regional political blocs, and establish an individual political brand centered on “secular social justice”.

“By going solo and contesting independently, Vijay aims to avoid being labelled a “B-team” of any party while reinforcing an individual political identity that is rooted in secularism and social justice,” say observers amid the buzz of the actor-politician making his electoral debut from Perambur in North Chennai—an area considered a traditional stronghold of the DMK—to directly take on the established Dravidian political structure.

Whether Vijay’s fan base will translate into political support remains to be seen but by positioning TVK as an alternative to decades of Dravidian rule, he may also end up splitting the anti-incumbency vote, in turn benefitting the ruling DMK, something that the opposition AIADMK-BJP combine also seems to be worried about.

What Vijay is trying to do is disrupt Tamil Nadu’s long-standing bipolar political landscape and establish TVK as a “lone warrior”. His support base may overlap with traditional AIADMK votes and perhaps also with some smaller regional players, the primary beneficiary of which may be the ruling side. But in the long run, the beneficiary may be Vijay himself. By fielding candidates across constituencies, he is building grassroots organisational strength and the potential to emerge as a bigger force by the next elections, analysts say.