Tamil Nadu ‘Vijay’ effect: Is Congress considering some long-term options?

A day after the stunning electoral upset, actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) with 108 seats are exploring ways to bridge the gap to the majority mark in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. Among the options being considered is forming a minority government initially and securing outside support later, sources say

Meanwhile, several parties associated with the DMK—such as the Congress (five seats), the CPI, and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which have won two seats each—seem to have indicated support but with benefits like Cabinet posts etc.

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However, there may be more at play.

Sources indicate that the Congress, which had considered breaking from its long-time ally DMK to join hands with Vijay’s TVK ahead of the Assembly elections but refrained for ideological reasons, is said to be reassessing its stance.

The Tamil Nadu Congress had reportedly submitted an assessment to party president Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leader Rahul Gandhi, suggesting a need to “reassess its positioning” and evaluate whether supporting the TVK could be strategically beneficial in a shifting political landscape. Some party leaders, who view the decision to reject TVK’s offer of a tie-up as a miscalculation, talk about a potential long-term alliance with TVK, not only in Tamil Nadu but possibly extending to neighbouring Kerala in the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Also Read: Is this the end of the Dravidian duopoly? Vijay redraws political map of Tamil Nadu

Party insiders admit that the leadership may have underestimated the extent of voter anger against sitting legislators, but there was reluctance to abandon a long-standing ally like the DMK and M.K. Stalin, believed to be having a good rapport with Congress leader Sonia Gandhi. Tamil Nadu’s political history also underscores a unique tradition of film stars successfully transitioning into politics. Leaders such as M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and J. Jayalalithaa leveraged their mass appeal to build powerful political careers, both leading the AIADMK and serving as Chief Ministers and results on Monday reiterate the trend

Observers say results of this edition of Assembly elections are expected to trigger political shifts. While the Congress faced setbacks in Assam and saw its alliances underperform in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, it managed to add another state to its limited list of governments, which includes Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka.

At the national level, these developments could either strengthen or strain Opposition unity.

In Kerala, the Congress gained ground at the expense of the Left, while in West Bengal, the Congress, Left parties, and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) contested separately, exposing underlying tensions.

The results in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu have weakened the relative standing of the TMC and DMK within the Opposition bloc, potentially prompting a recalibration of internal power dynamics. Whether these changes lead to greater cohesion or deepen existing fault lines remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the BJP’s gains—particularly in West Bengal—have significantly altered the national political landscape, including in the opposition camp.