Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections largely indicate a return of the UDF to power. However, most surveys also point to a closely contested battle, with “razor-thin” margins that could swing either way on counting day.
Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 full schedule
With only hours left for the declaration of results in the Kerala Assembly elections, the state’s traditional rivals—the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF)—are both expressing confidence of victory, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is positioning itself as a potential game-changer.
Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections largely indicate a return of the UDF to power. However, most surveys also point to a closely contested battle, with “razor-thin” margins that could swing either way on counting day.
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Congress leaders, including KPCC president Sunny Joseph and K. Muraleedharan, said the exit poll trends reflect strong anti-incumbency sentiment and a reversion to Kerala’s traditional pattern of alternating governments.
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Leaders of the LDF, including CPI(M) state secretary M. V. Govindan and convenor T. P. Ramakrishnan, dismissed the projections, recalling that similar predictions in 2021 were proven wrong. They asserted that the government’s welfare initiatives and development agenda have secured enduring public support that exit polls often fail to capture.
Meanwhile, the NDA is aiming to expand its footprint in the state. Most exit polls estimate the alliance winning between zero and five seats, while the Today’s Chanakya survey projects a wider range of 3 to 11 seats.
BJP state leadership, including president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, has predicted a hung Assembly, claiming that neither the UDF nor the LDF will reach the majority mark of 71 seats, thereby positioning the NDA as a decisive force.
Several surveys indicate a narrow vote share gap of just 2–4 per cent between the UDF and LDF. In Kerala’s first-past-the-post electoral system, even small shifts in vote share can translate into significant swings in seat outcomes, making the final result highly unpredictable.
As the state awaits the verdict, the contest appears poised between continuity and change, with the possibility of a fractured mandate adding an extra layer of uncertainty to the political landscape.
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